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Mathematic and simulation modeling is for an analysis, modeling and prediction of stochastic phenomena in the operation, maintenance, logistics, risk assessment very favorable, first of all for a possibility of monitoring through graphic outputs, which give more visual perception about stochastic processes.
The distribution network's topology is generally complex; it is liable to the power supply failures caused by various factors. This paper aims to evaluate the distribution equipments' risk based on the risk theory, a probabilistic weighted calculation method is presented to find out the risk probabilities of equipment failures. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and technique for order preference...
This paper aims to develop a graphical method to facilitate the identification of risk and cost of postponement of restoration for repairable components which are periodically tested and whose failures are hidden, i.e, are detectable by inspection or upon demand. The paper focuses on the items which are under aging, however, the methodology is flexible to implement for any aging pattern. The paper...
Due to an increasing amount of dam damage or break in resent years, great importance is attached to dam safety management in many countries. This paper analyzes the status of Chinese dam safety management according to the integral safety concept for dam including structural safety, dam safety monitoring, operational safety and emergency planning. Comparing with the safety management of large and medium-sized...
In an ageing electricity distribution infrastructure as found in many countries, measuring the impact of maintenance is becoming increasingly important. A realistic maintenance impact model will permit to improve existing maintenance strategies. This paper addresses this issue from a risk management perspective. The first part gives a short review of some of the existing mathematical models that are...
In this paper, a methodology within risk and trust management in general, and risk and trust assessment in particular, isn't well equipped to address trust issues in evolution.
This paper presents an extension of Bayesian belief networks (BBN) enabling use of both qualitative and quantitative likelihood scales in inference. The proposed method is accordingly named QQBBN (Qualitative-Quantitative Bayesian Belief Networks). The inclusion of qualitative scales is especially useful when quantitative data for estimation of probabilities are lacking and experts are reluctant to...
The environment designers must conquer to realize crewed space-exploration initiatives presents a heavily mass constrained design space coupled with immense consequences given hardware failures. The balance of these two highly dependent design elements throughout the design process requires insights provided through reliability and risk assessments at early stages of system concept development. If...
Malicious acts aimed directly against humans, or indirectly at their critical infrastructures is a real and present danger. However, how does society quantify danger levels? And is danger different from risk? Classic risk assessments require probability assessments, a highly speculative task for rare events. A ldquodanger indexrdquo, proposed by Randall Larsen in a recent book, is investigated here...
Early warning index system of enterprise international business reputation risk is the core of the management in the early warning of enterprise international reputation risk as well as a basis on which overall evaluation model of the enterprise international reputation is built. The early warning index system of enterprise international reputation risk - first-level indexes - includes seven categories...
Owner/operators of both electricity distribution and railway transport systems share a common need to regularly inspect, maintain and manage large numbers of electrical assets that are geographically dispersed. While this is essential in order to meet operational, safety and regulatory requirements, it represents a significant workload for those responsible. EA Technology has pioneered the use of...
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