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A reliability predication method based on GO methodology for fuel cycling system (FCS) in pebble bed reactor is introduced. Regarding to the specific structure and function of the FCS, the probability of FCS was defined. By using decomposition and reconstruction the probability of complex bridging system was calculated directly, some new operators and corresponding algorithm were derived. The comparison...
Water is a byproduct of ageing reactions in cellulosic insulation. During the life of a transformer water content in paper increases from levels below 0.5% in weight after manufacturing, to levels of 6% in weight at the end of transformer life. High humidity levels may also be found in not so old transformers, for example in those that have been submitted to repairs in field. As it is well known,...
Both deterministic and probabilistic approaches can be used to establish spinning reserve requirements. It has been proved that determining reserve requirements based on probabilistic approaches results in more economical efficiency. So, a probabilistic security constraint unit commitment problem (SCUC) is used to clear energy and spinning reserve simultaneously and to determine system spinning reserve...
As alternatives and extensions to previously studied ones, four new start-up demonstration tests have been proposed. The probabilistic analyses of these tests are obtained in the independent and identically distributed case by using the Markov chain approach. And the procedures developed are illustrated with a detailed example.
This paper presents the effect of the start up failure probability or the starting reliability of rapid-start units such as open-cycle gas turbines on energy scheduling and reserve allocation. The reserve allocation to these offline rapid-start units are in term of non-spinning reserve. A joint probability distribution approach is used to integrate the starting reliability into the operating reliability...
A technique using a fuzzy search method which is based on fuzzy multi-criteria function has been proposed for GMS(generator maintenance scheduling) in order to consider uncertainties of forced outage rate of generators and multi-objective function. This paper evaluates the results of maintenance scheduling of the seven generation company obtained by the previous proposed method. Especially this paper...
This paper investigates non-sequential simulation methods for single-area electric power system reliability evaluation with time dependent sources such as photovoltaic (PV) generation. Three random sampling techniques are proposed, considering the system load and PV generation as correlated random variables. Reliability indices such as expected loss of load and loss of load probability are estimated...
The paper builds the reliability evaluation model of distribution generation with the random power output characteristics, based on island operating mode, analyses how to calculate the island probability, then combined with proposed method of literature, obtains the distribution network reliability index considering distribution generation with the random power output characteristics. Finally the...
Long-range generation system planning is an essential task of a vertically integrated utility. It concerns investment of new power plants. However building a new power plant in Thailand may face difficulties from economical problem and social acceptance. Electricity import from neighboring countries is therefore an important option to be considered. However the appropriate cost of the imported electricity...
This paper presents the determination of the 10-minute operating reserve (OR) of the unit commitment (UC) function based on the probabilistic approach. An initial deterministic reserve criterion is used to test the system performance of a 6-thermal unit system. This work takes into account the demand side participation for reserve contributions and studies the system economics and reliability of a...
The importance of renewable energy sources has been growing at a high rate as a result of being environment friendly. In particular, wind energy is one of the most successfully utilized of such sources to produce electrical energy. Because of the randomness of wind speed, the two-state model used for modeling conventional generator is not suited for modeling wind turbine generators(WTG). Although...
One of the main objectives of power system restructuring and deregulation is to allow customers to select their desired reliability. This paper proposes a new market model where the reserve capacity is scheduled based on the desired risk level of customers, that is recognized by the expected load not supplied (ELNS) index. The reliability constraint in the objective function of reserve procurement...
A wind farm is a collection of wind turbines built in an area to provide electricity. Wind power is a renewable energy resource and an alternative to nonrenewable fossil fuels. In this paper impact of wind farm in power system reliability is investigated and a new procedure for reliability assessment of power systems with wind farm in HLII is proposed. In proposed procedure, a wind farm is given as...
Generating capacity adequacy assessment is an important task in power system planning and development. The basic model used to incorporate a generating unit in an adequacy assessment is a two state representation in which the unit is available or unavailable for service. This model is a valid representation for base load units but does not adequately represent intermittent operating units used to...
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