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In this study, a model for assessing of flood disaster risk in flood detention basins was developed using a multi-criteria evaluation method of catastrophe theory. An evaluation system of the model was composed of three mesosphere indicators and eleven underlying indicators including disaster-causing factor, socio-economic attributes and biophysical conditions. The model was applied to assessment...
Recent tragedies such as Sichuan Earthquake have revealed a need for methods to evaluate and plan for the impact of extreme events on critical infrastructure. Management of our critical infrastructures is a vital component of our economic and social life. Faced with catastrophic economic and human losses accumulating in each passing decade, development policy makers are demanding credible and complete...
In this paper, the current forecast of storm surge based on BP is adapted to deal with the characteristics of storm surge. One main kind of fuzzy information in geology calamity predicting system is solved by information diffusion method. The whole process is as follows: Firstly, influential information is collected by single step predicting model and neural network predicting model separately to...
Flood disaster management is an important part of flood risk assessment. A regional flood disaster risk assessment index system is established in this paper. Then principal component analysis (PCA) method and BP neural network are combined, and a regional flood disaster risk assessment of PCA-BP neural network model is established. PCA-BP neural network model analyze the loss of flood disaster about...
The comprehensive meteorological disaster risk evaluation model is proposed based on information diffusion, fuzzy membership functions and hierarchical structure ideas. The convergence, consistency and availability of the iterative scheme for determination of parameters are researched. The proposed hierarchical structure model of comprehensive risk evaluation is proved to be proper and practical by...
This paper analyzes the occurrence regularity of agricultural drought affected area during 1978-2006 in China. It is shown that China will be in the state of agricultural drought in a long term, and the degree of disaster caused by drought will be exacerbated. The grey catastrophe model is used to predict the trend of risk caused by agricultural drought in the future of China. The result shows that...
The purpose of this study is to establish an intelligent expert system for air pollution emergency response. A knowledge-based decision support system for emergency response and risk management of air pollution was presented in this paper. The mathematical pattern relationship of air pollution effects on neighboring area and the corresponding response measures were presented in this paper. With this...
In recent years, China is vulnerable to flood hazard which caused enormous economic loss and flood control has become the national focus. However, as the rapid economic development, climate change and frequent human activities, the only application of engineering measures against flood cannot meet the challenge of flood control anymore. As a result, the non-engineering measurements must be developed...
Comparing with other natural disasters, the influence area of meteorological disasters is biggest. It is estimated that of the total economical loss caused by all kinds of disasters, 70% was due to meteorological disasters. In this paper the risk analysis method, based on information diffusion theory, was used to advance a model for risk analysis of meteorological factor. Application of the model...
The meteorological disasters become more aggravated with the rapid progress of the economy in recent years. They occur frequently, affect large areas of the community, hence constituting a huge threat to human life and property. In this paper the risk analysis method, based on information diffusion theory, was used to advance a model for risk analysis of meteorological factor. Application of the model...
The development and changement of every thing is the contradict development of internal cause and external cause. Based on the philosophical thought, the internal cause and the external cause inducing factors of the geological disasters are studied in Xingwen county, Sichuan provience. This paper presents a model of risk assessment of geological disasters by using natural disaster risk index method,...
The assessment index system of lightning disaster situation is established in this paper, based on the actual data of lightning disaster and combined with the value standard such as current population, economic and ecological factors. The calculation model for comprehensive evaluation of losses in lightning disasters is given by using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). It can provide scientific...
Because of the uncertainty of drought disaster events, it is often difficult to obtain accurate information of their probability. In this paper, we use information distribution and interior-outer-set model to tackle this challenging problem by obtaining the possibility - probability distribution of drought disaster events, which can express the fuzziness of probability of drought disaster events....
Recent severe storm experiences in the U.S. Gulf Coast illustrate the importance of an integrated approach to natural disaster preparedness planning, one that harmonizes stakeholder and implementing agency efforts. Risk management decisions that are informed by and address decision maker and stakeholder risk perceptions and behavior are essential for effective risk management policy. Formal (versus...
Given the role of agriculture sector in an economy and its vulnerability in terms of disasters, direct monetary transfers are paid from tax-payers to agriculture producers in many countries. Government policies are expected not only to provide higher and more stable income to producers but also to create incentives to attract rural households to continue farming. Nevertheless, these policies have...
This drought, especially for city seriously affects the social and economic development of city. Drought is characterized by their high frequency, broad range and great loss. Nanchong city is one of the major cities with drought in Hilly Area of Central Sichuan Basin. This study presents a model of risk assessment of urban drought which integrates hazard, exposure, vulnerability and emergency response...
The possibility level a is dependent on technical conditions and knowledge. Calculation of the fuzzy expected value of landfall hurricane risk along the east coast of the United States has been performed based on the interior-outer set model. Selection of an a value depends on the confidence in different groups of people, while selection of a conservative risk value or venture risk value depends on...
It has been proved by the practice that effective emergency management after a disaster still causes an irreparable loss. The paper explores the difference between risk management and emergency management in tourist destination based on the theory and practice of disaster risk management in tourism destination in China and abroad. Then the paper studies the methodology of establishing disaster risk...
Government agencies ranging from the Department of Homeland Security to local municipalities recognize the need for disaster preparedness, response and recovery training and experimentation capabilities. Simulation based systems for training and experimentation provide the complexity required to deliver effective exercises. Unfortunately the availability of such systems for the HLS domain is limited...
Several recent events in the U.S. have highlighted the criticality and vulnerability of infrastructure systems to sudden shocks such as natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and food shortages. Proper understanding of such disruptive scenarios and their impact using holistic and integrated systems modeling techniques is crucial for effective resource allocation and disaster management. An input-output...
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