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As the pillar industry of the national economics, e-commerce nowadays has played a great role in the GDP growth and it owns the characters of both high risk and high earning rate. Taking the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation into risks analysis and with the help of the analytical hierarchy process, all the risks arising from e-commerce process were assigned by the proper weights, which aimed at the quantitative...
When we consider risk as a type of financial asset, and accordingly transform the measurement of risk into the pricing of asset (i.e. risk), a series of assets pricing methods in financial economics can be applied. Furthermore, Equilibrium Pricing Principle has proved the rationality and feasibility of this consideration, and points out that traditional risk measurement method, VaR (Value at Risk)...
Firstly, this article introduce foreign theoretical research of risk management in the subway tunnel project from four aspects that evaluation theory, management model, accident statistics, risk analysis. Secondly, the paper analyze foreign practice research of risk management in the subway tunnel project from four aspects that computer simulation, information platform, standards, government regulations...
The real estate portfolio is a dynamic process and an effective way to spread risk. The article analyses the risk of real estate portfolio using VaR method, and on the basis of this, establishes an optimization model for real estate portfolio under VaR constraint, in addition, arrives its efficient frontier and optimal strategy. Finally, through a case of real estate portfolio, the paper also discusses...
In recent years, China is vulnerable to flood hazard which caused enormous economic loss and flood control has become the national focus. However, as the rapid economic development, climate change and frequent human activities, the only application of engineering measures against flood cannot meet the challenge of flood control anymore. As a result, the non-engineering measurements must be developed...
Level crossings are defined as passive and automated ones. Traffic risk of the automated level crossing is analyzed and estimated. The function and the dependability of the level crossing control system are modeled based on the stochastic Petri nets. The relationship between the national statistic data and the densities of the road users and railway train is set up and a mathematical function is used...
In a construction project where duration truly equals money, the management of duration is critical, thus predicting the likelihood of duration may play a key role towards project success. On the basis of the researches of other scholars, this paper analyzed the traditional probability analysis method for duration risk in program evaluation and review technique(PERT). On basis of that it simulates...
This paper presents a study on theory and methodology of keeping sequence of reinforcement judgment for existing levee based on the risk assessment theory. On the basis of risk analysis for main failure modes and break losses of levees engineering, an analysis model for reinforcement judgment of the existing levee is presented. The analysis method for risk probability of levee break by all probable...
This drought, especially for city seriously affects the social and economic development of city. Drought is characterized by their high frequency, broad range and great loss. Nanchong city is one of the major cities with drought in Hilly Area of Central Sichuan Basin. This study presents a model of risk assessment of urban drought which integrates hazard, exposure, vulnerability and emergency response...
In a global business environment, effective supply chain management (SCM) is becoming more and more important for companies to remain competitive. Most traditional SCM researches focus on improving performance of supply chain. However, owing to existence of uncertainty or unpredictable events, some supply chains often suffer systemic damages and risks. Therefore, it is critical to account for risk...
Economic risk analysis of flood control engineering system is very important in risk management of flood disaster. The triangular fuzzy numbers theory was used to describe and deal with randomicity and fuzziness of economic risk system of flood control engineering, and the shortage and imprecision of datum information. In order to deal with the difficulties of operations of triangular fuzzy numbers...
The purpose of this paper is to use the Analytic Hierarchy Process to build up a model on identifying the strategic risk. The new model is based on Baird and Thomas' Contingency model which is in accord with the strategic management of the traditional mode of thinking. At the same time, on the basis of systematology we use the multi-objective fuzzy optimization theory as strategic risk measurement...
In this paper, the Monte Carlo simulation method is applied to the economic evaluation of construction project. By using multi-element variation analysis method, we can directly deal with the uncertain risk elements and describe the uncertainty in the form of probability, after using the independent simulated tests on the economic evaluation project N times, we can get the results to predict and analyze...
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