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The International Futures (IFs) long-term global forecasting system, with a development history spanning 40 years, has deep roots in world modeling and integrated assessment modeling. Its highly integrated models span demographics, economics, education, health, governance, agriculture, energy, infrastructure and the environment. The open-source system is available for stand-alone use and on the web...
There are many barriers and challenges associated with climate change communication focused on promoting community-based action for sustainable futures. Of particular interest is the challenge to embed community perspectives in a communication process of climate change solutions. In this paper we argue that 3D interactive simulations using design inquiry as a development process, can be an effective...
Technology foresight is usually conducted by government or industry associations and can serve to provide companies with information on critical technologies that a country or industry intends to develop in the next ten to twenty years. For individual companies to benefit from foresight results and transform them into specific technology development plans, the relationships between the desired technologies...
Since the advent of public and private initiatives in Colombia, there has been interest in exploring the possible future pathways of the Colombian business cycle. Based on a foresight analysis, it has been identified on the one hand that it is necessary to achieve greater productivity and competitiveness and on the other hand, collective intentionality towards progress must be encouraged. Using these...
Simulation is likely to become a prominent method of theory development. Futures studies have used simulation in different ways such as evaluating scenarios. Nonetheless, the central attributes of computer simulation such as reductionism-based abstraction, determinism and elimination of stakeholders are the main barriers of successful implementation of simulation in FS. In this paper, we would paint...
The global container transport system is changing quickly. Ports can be severely affected by these changes; therefore, ports need insight into how the system might change and what the impact of this will be on their competitive position. Given the intrinsic complexity of the container transport system and the presence of a wide range of deeply uncertain factors affecting the system, we use an exploratory...
To match the rapidly changing demand for food to its supply, agricultural productivity needs to be increased. The adoption of improved agricultural technologies is therefore crucial for sustainable agricultural development. In this paper we investigate the adoption dynamics of improved seed by farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa. Farmers’ expectation is found to be a particularly important element in defining...
Nowadays with the possibility of synchronous e-learning, online courses are becoming a new paradigm in education. But there are few studies systematically discussing the interplay between online courses and global education equality quantitatively. Here, we indicate that online education is more like the global public goods with on-rival and non-excludable in consumption. We establish an educational...
As energy systems integration deepens to support the development of a cleaner and more intelligent energy infrastructure, it will be increasingly important for consumers to better understand their relationship to energy systems and to take more proactive roles in managing energy. Foregrounding the importance of systems comprehension, we argue for the strong potential of interactive games to be helpful...
The ecosystem services framework provides a holistic perspective for planning on local, national, and global scales. Often, scenarios are utilized to quantify and contrast the potential impacts of anthropocentric or climatic drivers of change on ecosystem services. One freely available modeling suite, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), from the Natural Capital Project,...
This article tests whether the field of foresight and futures studies shows significant variable selection biases in the modelling of the future in general and the impact of function systems in particular. We performed a word frequency analysis to measure the relative importance of the political system, the economy, science, art, religion, law, sport, health, education, and the mass media to three...
The essay sets out to illustrate humanity’s dependence on the ubiquity of modelling and simulation. As such, the essay raises issues that are inherent in modelling and simulation now and others that are likely to in the future. The emphasis will be on the ubiquity of modelling and simulation, and not on any instance of its practice. It does not describe the outcome of a particular research project...
Many foresight researchers believe that quantitative simulations have a very restricted contribution in futures studies due to their simplicity and lack of creativity. While qualitative methods, taking advantage of the human cognitive system, have a great potential in addressing a wide range of problems in futures studies, this potential is mostly due to the human visual logic that can handle the...
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