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The main aim of the paper is to present selected features of TSprediction package developed for R environment, which now is one of the most important commercial computing platforms (offered under the GNU GPL license). The article presents the features of the TSprediction package enabling the prediction of time series where there is a periodic component in the form of seasonal fluctuations. The package...
The issue of career potential is currently very popular. Experience and potential − that is what the most of employers are looking for. Employers are wondering whether the candidate has the potential to take on a new challenge training. The article attempts to bring the issue to measure the career potential. It presents the most common tools used by employers in the recruitment process and the most...
Regional and sectorial strategies should take into consideration, inter alia, stakeholders’ needs and potential problems in the future (e.g. lack of energy security). In this situation, there is often necessity to select key technologies for a region or a sector. The problem is what kind of methods are used to select needed technologies and to point out visions, which are linked to these technologies,...
Measurement of consumer preferences is one of the most important elements of marketing research. In the measurement of consumers’ preferences Maximum Difference Scaling method can be used, which was implemented in the module MaxDiff (Best-Worst Scaling) of Sawtooth Software. The aim of the article is to present the author’s MaxDiff package for the R program, which is one of the most important no-commercial...
The goal of this paper is to propose the regression model usefull in a priori ratemaking in short term non-life insurance. In the model the aggregat claim amount for individual risk following is estimated. It is asumed that this random variable following the compound Poisson distribution being a special case of Tweedie. We notice that the independent assumtion in the portfolio of risks is violated...
The minimum wage is the wage policy instrument that affects, among others, labor costs and elimination of negative forms of competition. In political-economic and scientific circles there is an ongoing discussion on the legitimacy of raising the minimum wage and its impact on employment. The main aim of this study is to determine the impact of changes in the minimum wage on labor demand of young people...
In this article the evaluation of the quality of indicators of industrial tendency survey in the Polish voivodeships in the short-term is presented. The attention is focused on the multi-faceted comparison of forecasts and assessments of the economic situation expressed by entrepreneurs. The tools used in the study are: graphic description and quantitative measures (Pearson correlation coefficient,...
The aim of the article is the presentation of selected foresight methods related to energy industry. In this paper, there are presented the reasons for using foresight methods in management context, the selected classification of foresight methods and general recommendations addressed to common usage of the different study methods. There are shown the kind and the range of methods used in the selected...
The purpose of the study is to investigate the effect of the proposed method of sample extensions to the accuracy of the forecast series, in this case the WIG index. The forecast of series presenting the WIG was made on the basis of a model based on wavelet transform. Prior to the application of the extension number, the number of input data samples was divided into an even number of observations...
Ensemble learning, which consist in using a lot of models (instead one single model) can be used in classical data analysis. The aim of the paper is to present an adaptation of ensemble learning with the use of bagging for regression analysis of symbolic interval-valued data. The article presents basic concepts concerning symbolic data analysis, the adaptation of ordinary least squares model for symbolic...
In the paper, the authors analyse the interaction between public debt and inflation including the mutual impulse response. The European sovereign debt crisis brought once again a focus onto the consequences of government debt in combination with an expansionary monetary policy for the development of consumer prices. Public deficits can lead to higher inflation rates if the money supply is expansionary...
The main purpose of this paper is to identify and characterise the factors of uncertainty in forecasting the (in)solvency of a pension system based on the non-financial defined contribution model (NDC) and to evaluate the forecasting function of automatic balance mechanisms (ABM). The study is theoretical and empirical. It dismisses the hypothesis of automatic balancing of the NDC model, which justifies...
One of the aspects of progressing globalisation processes is the change in the structure of labour market, especially in the employment and unemployment level. The scale of these changes is indirectly dependent on the potential of the labour resources in the local (national) labour markets. The main objective of the paper is to indicate the similarities and differences in changes in parameters that...
The purpose of this publication is to present the importance of financial investment using the example of the financial instrument of municipal bonds of the Municipality of Ostrów Wielkopolski. The budget support offered by the bond issue is not comparable with the possibilities of what can be achieved without issuing securities. After many years, bonds have become one of the main subjects in the...
In this paper were presented the results of the application of quasi-simulation methods to analysis the impact of the occurrence of systematic gaps on the accuracy of inter and extrapolative forecasts for time series with seasonal fluctuations. Forecasts were built on the basis of predictors based on descriptive models with seasonally changing parameters. Theoretical considerations will be illustrated...
This study is one of the first attempts to discover how long households in Poland remain in poverty (out of poverty) and whether the time spent in poverty (out of poverty) depends on the socio-economic group of household. The analysis is conducted using panel data collected in the project ”Social Diagnosis” in 2000-2013. We analyze the survivor functions of staying in poverty (out of poverty) using...
When dealing with real data situation we often have a binary (biomial, dichoto-mous) dependent variable. As the linear probability model is not such a good solution in such a situation there is a need to use nonlinear models. A quite good solution for such a sit-uation is the logistic regression model. The paper presents an adaptation of linear regression model when dealing with symbolic interval-valued...
Research problem analysed in the paper concentrates on the impact of the choice of scale on the the goodness of fit of the Structural Equation Model. For that purpose the primary research tool were built and used for conducting two rounds of research. In the first round two groups of respondents were given two different questionaries dealing with the same research problem (same set of research questions)...
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