The Infona portal uses cookies, i.e. strings of text saved by a browser on the user's device. The portal can access those files and use them to remember the user's data, such as their chosen settings (screen view, interface language, etc.), or their login data. By using the Infona portal the user accepts automatic saving and using this information for portal operation purposes. More information on the subject can be found in the Privacy Policy and Terms of Service. By closing this window the user confirms that they have read the information on cookie usage, and they accept the privacy policy and the way cookies are used by the portal. You can change the cookie settings in your browser.
Forecasting process efficiency depends – to a large extent – on the correct determination of the forecasted variable. Therefore, companies should use for sales forecasting, the variables that reflect actual consumer demand. However in practice, since demand is usually not directly observable, many operational measures of demand are used. In the manufacturing and retail enterprises, the most often...
The article shows in a synthetic way the problems of unemployment in the ten states that newly accessed the EU in 2004. Special attention was paid to long-term unemployment. The period of time from 2000 to 2011, that was selected for the purpose of the analysis, includes the years that directly preceded and directly followed accession to the EU. This was to show the possible changes in intensity of...
The subject of this paper is the forecast of prices and volatility on the Day Ahead Market (DAM). The analysis was made for two portfolios of four contracts from 30.03.2009 to 28.10.2011 for two fixings on DAM. Four out of 24 contracts noted on DAM were chosen by PCA. Prices were forecast by the SARIMA models incorporating autocorrelation and seasonality. Value-at-Risk calculated through the DCC model...
In this paper the application of parametric count data models in claim counts modeling is investigated. Insurance portfolios have a very specific characteristic, i.e. for many policies there are no claims observed in the insurance history for a given period of time. As the zero-inflation and over-dispersion effects are a common situation in insurance portfolios, three models: zero-inflated Poisson...
Geometry has always contributed to a great extent and played a significant role in the development of many of the principles of the factor models. While factor-analytic principles and procedures have been generally developed by the heavy emphasis on matrix algebra, there is still a grave importance and need towards a geometrical approach and its application in the factor analysis. In this article...
In this paper the author presents a method of building a meta-forecast as an arithmetic mean of the combined forecasts set by various methods. The empirical example, in which the forecasts (individual, combined and meta-forecasts) are determined for the microeconomic variable with seasonal fluctuations, is the illustration of theoretical considerations. The accuracy of meta-forecasts is compared with...
Demand forecasts in a business may be constructed by various methods, e.g. by using Type-I formal models, or by using type-II formal models based on experts’ opinions. The experts can be the business’s managers or persons from outside of the studied business. The experts can not only construct forecasts, but also subjectively specify the probability of them coming true. In this article, the Weibull...
The article provides an answer in a new dimension to the very old question about the real value of production which has become up to date again after the financial crisis with its immense losses of securities and stocks. The answer includes the knowledge from the latest research on the existence of the economic order in the real equal natural world with energy as the means of payment. The results...
In this paper we compared the accuracy of a few forecasting methods of the industrial production index in Poland. Naïve forecasts, simple autoregressive models, leading indicator models, factor models as well as joint models were included in the considerations. We used the out-of-sample RMSE and CPA tests as the main measures of the predictions accuracy. We found that three models provided the best...
The paper presents the results of the analysis of factors differentiating the level of monthly net incomes in Poland. In the first step of the research, one-way ANOVA was applied in order to verify whether the level of education influences incomes. Subsequently, it was investigated whether such variables as sex, age, the class of residence, region, experience, study major and occupation additionally...
This paper analyzes the relation between intellectual capital and development of higher education system. The measurement was executed for the set of 16 UE countries, including Poland. Applied approach into the measurement of intellectual capital was regarded as the extension of the proposals presented by the author in the Report of Intellectual Capital of Poland (www.innowacyjnosc.gpw.pl/kip). The...
The paper presents the results of comparative analysis of quality and higher education system in Poland. The cluster analysis was used to group the voivodeships of Poland. The correspondence analysis allowed to attempt at verifying quality of higher education in each cluster and at explaining what the highest rated type of academic institution in Poland is.
The objective of the paper is to assess the situation of Polish regions (NUTS 2) and their progress in sustainable development regarding social inclusion. The study covers the period after Poland’s accession to the European Union (2004-2011). The implementation of ratio analysis and synthetic measure facilitated an evaluation of occurring tendencies. Taxonomic analysis was performed for the years...
In this paper we describe a method of estimation which uses dynamic linear models and then we use this method for estimating unemployment rate. We attempt also to evaluate this approach in respect of the quality of assessment. In this aim we do simulation study which purpose is to compare estimators based on dynamic linear models to direct es-timators. The results of the survey show that the use of...
The aim of this paper is to present a proposal of two-stage approach for determining dependencies between socio-economic aspects and migration phenomena and also to make an attempt to apply it in the analysis of internal migrations in Poland in 2004-2011. A construction of econometric gravity model using taxonomical measure has been presented. Significance, intensity and impact direction of selected...
In the article the outline of asymptotic theory of extreme values has been intro-duced for the application to finance, hydrology and insurance. The study includes the theo-rems and the definitions which give the possibility to appoint the limiting distribution func-tion for the distributions of maximum in three cases. The first case concerns the sequence independent random variables. The second case...
The paper presents the development of R package for conjoint features: caFactorialDesign() function which allows to generate a complete or fractional factorial design and caEncodedDesign() function which allows to encode obtained experiments. The basis of both functions is the implementation of AlgDesign package functions in conjoint package. In the proposed solution, it is assumed that to obtain...
Product positioning is a wide range of business activities. Positioning is the process by which marketers try to create an image or identity in the minds of their target market for its product, brand, or organization. The main aim of the paper is to preset and apply ensemble learning for symbolic data in cluster analysis in order to evaluate a product position. Empirical part of the paper presents...
The paper presents results of survey concerning the influence of gender, age and education of the unemployed on job searching time. For the sake of specificity of survey, especially in case of censored data, the Cox’s proportional hazard model has been used for the identification of determinants and research their influence for time needed to take up a job. To the model, except independent variables,...
The objective of this paper is to assess the participation of adults in Poland in lifelong learning. The participation in education of Poles aged 25-64 was analyzed at three levels: national, regional and individual. The data at the national level were confronted with the situation in Europe and the data at the voivodeships level were considered in the context of regional competitiveness. The main...
Set the date range to filter the displayed results. You can set a starting date, ending date or both. You can enter the dates manually or choose them from the calendar.