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This paper presents the first comparison of the accuracy of density forecasts for stock prices. Six sets of forecasts are evaluated for DJIA stocks, across four forecast horizons. Two forecasts are risk‐neutral densities implied by the Black–Scholes and Heston models. The third set are historical lognormal densities with dispersion determined by forecasts of realized variances obtained from 5‐min...
First, to separate different market conditions, this study focuses on how VIX spot (VIX), VIX futures (VXF), and their basis (VIX − VXF) perform different roles in asset pricing. Secondly, this study decomposes the VIX index into two parts: volatility calculated from out‐of‐the‐money call options and volatility calculated from out‐of‐the‐money put options. The analysis shows that out‐of‐the‐money...