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Injection mold replacement decisions in the automotive industry are usually made by managers and engineers, who based primarily on their own experience. This paper presents an injection mold replacement analysis through the use of stochastic dynamic programming and benchmark from the case study. The algorithm determines a optimal production volume and age that give the minimum expected cost under...
Pari-mutuel prediction markets are the markets where participants, based on their beliefs, buy contracts that have payoffs depending on a correct prediction of the future outcome. Implementing pari-mutuel prediction markets offers simplicity and liquidity guarantee. However, an appropriate trading duration is difficult to determine. While longer trading period allows participants to learn from the...
This paper proposes an integrated model for water resource management using multi-objective optimization and rainfall forecast. To optimally allocate limited water supply, the objective functions involve maximizing net economic benefit while striving to maintain parity of water shortage in allocated areas. Moreover, because rain water is an important factor especially in monsoon season, rainfall forecast...
This paper proposes using a decision contour derived from real options analysis, which is an evaluation tool for investment under uncertainty, to suggest an optimal stopping time of the compact genetic algorithm on the trap problem. The proposed criterion provides a stopping boundary, where termination is optimal on one side and continuation is on the other. A generic stopping function is formulated...
This paper proposes a quantitative model for balancing and optimizing portfolio of R&D projects. The model focuses on two dimensions of uncertainty - market and technical - to formulate R&D portfolio budget allocation problem. The investment is broken into two critical stages, namely R&D phase and commercialization phase. The real options analysis is then employed to allow for management...
The use of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) products to develop systems has become increasingly prominent due to schedule and cost benefits. However, COTS integration requires considerable effort and time, and an accurate estimate of an integration cost can help a project manager plan and ensure an on-time completion of the project. The COCOTS model is a widely-used method to estimate effort in COTS-based...
The Bayesian networks support resource allocation in software project and also help in analyzing trade-offs among resources. The model predicts the probability distribution of every variable given incomplete data. Even though the Bayesian networks conveniently facilitate scenario-based analysis, they do not support finding an optimal solution in multi-criteria decision making. This paper proposes...
The compact genetic algorithm (cGA) has a distinct characteristic that it requires almost minimal memory to store candidate solutions. It represents a population structure as a probability distribution over the set of solutions. Although cGA offers many advantages, it has a limitation that hinges on an assumption of the independency between each individual bit. For example, cGA fails to solve a deceptive...
The real options technique has emerged as an evaluation tool for investment under uncertainty. It explicitly recognizes future decisions, and the exercise strategy is based on the optimal decisions in future periods. The real options approach has been applied to many economic and financial problems, but few are in computer science and engineering. The novelty of this work lies in applying real options...
Traditional hardware design is not flexible. Specification changes often require redesigning from scratch. The objected-oriented (OO) concept, which consists of encapsulation, inheritance and reusability mechanisms, is applied to solve the problem. However, the OO concept still confronts code maintenance problem, as the same function may be redundant in several objects. The Aspect-Oriented Programming...
In this paper we present a prediction process of the Stock Exchange of Thailand index using adaptive evolution strategies. The prediction process does not require the knowledge of the functional form a priori. In each recursion step, genetic algorithm is used to evolve the structure of the prediction function, whereas the coefficient is evolved by evolution strategies. The proposed method has been...
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