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Under what sets of conditions ought humanity undertake actions to reduce the risk of human extinction? Though many agree that the risk of human extinction is high and intolerable, there is little research into the actions society ought to undertake if one or more methods for estimating human extinction risk indicate that the acceptable threshold is exceeded. In addition to presenting a set of patterns...
This paper describes Willow Pond, a future residential community that is moving toward self-sufficiency. Driven by volatile food prices and supplies, volatile energy prices and supplies, economic globalization, frustration with politics, and technological convergence, the residents of Willow Pond introduced a self-sufficient structure. Home systems feature photovoltaic skins, fuel cells, and artificially...
The industrial sector in the United States consumes one-third of the nation's energy and emits one-fifth of the nation's carbon dioxide. It also consumes virgin materials at unsustainable rates and produces substantial amounts of wastes. To reverse these trends, the United States can transition to an infinitely reusable, recyclable, and renewable industrial ecosystem (IR 3 ). The concept requires...
Researchers and commissions contend that the risk of human extinction is high, but none of these estimates have been based upon a rigorous methodology suitable for estimating existential risks. This article evaluates several methods that could be used to estimate the probability of human extinction. Traditional methods evaluated include: simple elicitation; whole evidence Bayesian; evidential reasoning...
This paper explores the ways in which advanced information technologies could be used to improve governance in the future. In addition to providing an overview of the current uses of information technologies for governance, the paper offers a three-part vision of information technology in which intelligent systems assist decision structuring, evaluation, and understanding; intelligent systems actively...
This paper explores changes to the court system that could improve governance in the future. In addition to reviewing the relevant trends, the paper offers three scenarios based on fixed, flexible, and improvisational frameworks and within-, pan-, and non-spatial jurisdictions. The solutions depicted in the scenarios draw heavily on innovative uses of information technology. In combination, the frameworks...
This paper presents the results of a workshop on the future of governance held at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. The participants were broken into five groups based on different perspectives on governance: local, state, federal, international, and courts. Each group developed a definition of good governance, assessed trends impacting their conception of good governance, developed future scenarios,...
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