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The forecasting of generation capacity reserve through the use of well-being indices provides useful information for power system operator about power system security and for power traders about generation reserve pricing. Using this information, the system operator can take actions to provide sufficient generation capacity reserve to meet the required levels of the security parameters. In the paper...
This paper presents a method for short-term electricity price forecasting based on combination of the Monte Carlo simulation and Markov chains. The method provides an estimation of the probabilities of various electricity price ranges, average prices, and probabilities of the highest price range, for each hour of the next 24 hours. The external variables have been implicitly accounted for through...
The retail company on the liberalized electricity market faces an increasing price risk exposure, stemming from the uncertain demand and the wholesale market price volatility. In the paper the influence of the stochastic parameters on the retailer's overall risk exposure is analyzed. After constructing the appropriate models for consumer demand, electricity spot price and forward price curve, the...
In the paper, Markov chains in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation are used to predict the power system security level. The new approach uses a Markov chain for each identified security range to track the development of security level through time. Based on the forecasted and recorded data, the proposed procedure offers a useful tool to the system operator to predict a future power system security...
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