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The forecasting of generation capacity reserve through the use of well-being indices provides useful information for power system operator about power system security and for power traders about generation reserve pricing. Using this information, the system operator can take actions to provide sufficient generation capacity reserve to meet the required levels of the security parameters. In the paper...
This paper presents a method for short-term electricity price forecasting based on combination of the Monte Carlo simulation and Markov chains. The method provides an estimation of the probabilities of various electricity price ranges, average prices, and probabilities of the highest price range, for each hour of the next 24 hours. The external variables have been implicitly accounted for through...
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