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High‐resolution models have brought about capabilities in forecasting that could barely have been envisaged decades ago. The same advances in computer power and atmospheric science that enabled successful high‐resolution modelling have also led to useful forecasts further into the medium range and beyond. However, there remain problems forecasting at very short range, in particular concerning convection,...
Met Office guidance forecasters continue to add value to NWP products, but in ways that could scarcely have been imagined half a century ago. We focus on how technological advances including ‘Field Modification’ have facilitated the creation of forecast products and new forms of graphical guidance to assist in the communication of the preferred weather story. We also describe a new impact‐based severe...
During the final two decades of the twentieth century, major strides had been made in forecasting synoptic‐scale features such as fronts and cyclones. However, the forecasting of embedded smaller‐scale features which could produce significant weather remained challenging. In addition, forecasting convection remained highly problematic. New conceptual models were developed, which when used in conjunction...
The early 1980s ushered in rapid advances in forecasting skill with the introduction of the Met Office 15‐level model in 1982, including much improved forecasting of cyclogenesis. Nevertheless, there remained many opportunities for forecasters to add value to computer output, for example by using an increasing range of satellite imagery. However, failure to predict the impacts from the Great Storm...
The decade up to the early 1980s was marked by steady improvements in weather forecasting. However, significant challenges remained. For example, the infamous Fastnet Storm of August 1979 led to multiple fatalities at sea, exposing critical deficiencies in forecasting rapid cyclogenesis. Then successive severe wintry events during winter 1981/1982 tested both models and forecasters to the limit. Models...
The introduction of the Met Office 10‐level model in 1972 marked the beginning of a steady improvement in forecasting the evolution of synoptic systems, including fronts. Models could now predict a greater range of atmospheric parameters, in particular, precipitation. More satellite imagery was becoming available routinely, especially informative over data‐sparse oceans. Ingenious methods of forecaster...
In the second paper in this series, we review how, following the advent of the computer, highly simplified numerical weather prediction models were developed during the 1950s and 1960s, examples of which are shown. Although models provided guidance on the possible behaviour of synoptic systems for up to 2–3 days ahead in time, forecasters still faced the major challenge of inferring the distribution...
This is the first in a series of papers in which we review how the role of the weather forecaster has evolved from before the use of computers, through to the present day, with increasing reliance on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and powerful computer workstations. In this paper, we focus on forecasting in the United Kingdom (UK) during the pre‐computer era, when forecasting relied on...
On 18 May 2015 there were reports of localized wind damage just north of Swansea in south Wales. Observations indicated the development of a mesoscale cyclonic circulation at the tip of a frontal wave which first formed just west of south Wales. This mesoscale circulation subsequently ran eastwards across south Wales around the time of the reported damage, accompanied by gale force gusts on its southern...
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