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This case study seeks to identify the initial‐condition perturbation structure that triggers a prominent example of the positive‐ to negative‐phase arctic oscillation (+AO to −AO) transition in a numerical forecast ensemble. Experiments with spectral filtering and perturbation‐denial sensitivity analysis are used to test the hypothesis that the transition originated from a localized perturbation feature...
The impact of parameter variations on the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System ensemble performance is examined, and subsets of ensemble members are used to identify the relative impact of the individual parameters. Two sets of parameter variations are considered. The first set has variations in the parametrization of cumulus convection only. The second set has variations in both...
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