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In this paper, we aim to determine the importance of psychological pressure on performance in sequential tournaments. We make use of penalty shootouts in soccer and test the presence of first‐mover advantage. Shootouts in soccer is a formidable framework because it is a natural experiment where teams compete in a sequence whose order is determined by the random outcome of a coin toss. Using data from...
This paper examines soccer teams' strategic choices about the extent of offense/defense to adopt in competing with other teams. The sample is European Champions League group stage matches played between 1997–1998 and 2009–2010. We begin by developing a characterization of teams' strategies (extent of offense or defense) using principal component analysis. This is used to estimate the relationship between a team's probabilities of scoring and conceding goals and its chosen strategy. Knowing that relationship, it is then possible to derive a team's optimal strategy, and to study how this varies in different situations (such as playing at home or away). A comparison between optimal and actual strategy reveals that teams appear to adopt more defensive strategies than is optimal. A notable feature of our study is that we model a team as choosing a strategy at the start of each match and also at half time, thereby incorporating a dynamic element. (JEL...
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