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We probe the lethality of X-rays from solar flares to organisms on Mars based on the observations of 10 solar flares. We, firstly, estimate the doses produced by the strong flares observed by the RHESSI and GOES missions during the descending phase of sunspot cycle 23. Next, in order to realize the dependence of dose on flux and steepness of spectra, we model the incident spectra over a wide range...
A few prediction methods have been developed based on the precursor technique which is found to be successful for forecasting the solar activity. Considering the geomagnetic activity aa indices during the descending phase of the preceding solar cycle as the precursor, we predict the maximum amplitude of annual mean sunspot number in cycle 24 to be 111 ± 21. This suggests that the maximum amplitude...
Precursor techniques, in particular those using geomagnetic indices, often are used in the prediction of the maximum amplitude for a sunspot cycle. Here, the year 2008 is taken as being the sunspot minimum year for cycle 24. Based on the average aa index value for the year of the sunspot minimum and the preceding four years, we estimate the expected annual maximum amplitude for cycle 24 to be about...
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