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Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities and, consequently, occupation and irregular construction in risk areas. Therefore, forecasts of heavy rainfall,...
This work analysed heavy rainfall events and their predictability on Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, using rain gauge data from 2000 to 2010, atmospheric model outputs, and an artificial neural network based on adaptive resonance theory. The latter was applied on top of atmospheric simulations for 2009 and 2010, and we were able to predict 55% of the heavy rainfall events using a combination of relative humidity...
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