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We utilize fatigue-crack-growth and load-spectra data published in the open literature to estimate aircraft probability of failure (PoF). We show that because single flight PoF values should not exceed 10-7, the behavior of the tail of the initial defect distribution significantly affects the predicted safe life. We demonstrate that even a slight variation of initial defect distribution parameters...
We describe the effect of the equivalent pre-crack size (EPS) distribution errors on probability of failure (PF) of an FA/18 bulkhead. We distinguish two types of errors: (1) measurement errors of the EPS distribution parameters and (2) errors that arise because PF is typically calculated based on an EPS distribution with an infinite tail, while in a flying aircraft the tail cannot be unbounded. Our...
We report on estimating probability of failure (PoF) of an FA/18 bulkhead based on empirically obtained and published in open literature fatigue-crack growth and equivalent pre-crack size (EPS) distribution data. We demonstrate that the tail of the EPS distribution has a significant effect on PoF. Considering each flight to be a successful (i.e., no failure) fatigue test, we use a Bayesian approach...
Evaluating risk of aircraft failure is necessary for scheduling appropriate maintenance, avoiding aircraft losses and mission failures, maintaining a high level of readiness, and estimating aircraft fleet aging. This paper presents the results of calculating aircraft failure risk by estimating the probability of structural failure of F-18 wing attachment bulkheads. Laboratory fatigue-crack growth-test...
Achieving high reliability is one of the major objectives in the development of the future combat system (FCS) family of military vehicles. The proposed solution to achieve this objective is a prognostics-based approach characterized by a capability to monitor the status of mission-critical components and forecast the future state of the FCS system. In this paper, two approaches for achieving and...
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