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The wind has emerged as one of the fastest growing and most important alternative energy sources during the past decade. However, the most serious problem being faced by human beings in wind applications is the dependence on the volatility of the wind. Thus, wind forecasting techniques in general and short term wind prediction methods in special are very helpful for wind applications. Albeit various...
Following the growing share of wind energy in electric power systems, several wind power forecasting techniques have been reported in the literature in recent years. In this paper, a wind power forecasting strategy composed of a feature selection component and a forecasting engine is proposed. The feature selection component applies an irrelevancy filter and a redundancy filter to the set of candidate...
As wind power penetrations increase dramatically, wind power forecasting is increasingly becoming one of the fundamental strategies in hybrid power systems. In order to obtain higher accuracy, a new method-genetic algorithm neural network based on rough set theory is proposed in the paper. Considering many factors that influence wind speed forecasting, reduction algorithm of rough set theory is introduced...
In recent years, environmental considerations have prompted the use of wind power as a renewable energy resource. However, the biggest challenge in integrating wind power into the electric grid is its intermittency. One approach to deal with wind intermittency is forecasting future values of wind power production. Thus, several wind power or wind speed forecasting methods have been reported in the...
A key requirement of electric system operation is the ability of system operators to manage all types of variability and uncertainty. Integrating large-scale wind power into electric system operation increases variability and uncertainty that can impact supply and demand balance performance requirements. Many Independent System Operators (ISOs) are in the process of addressing these challenges. The...
This paper discusses risk management, contracting, and bidding for a wind power producer. A majority of the wind power in the United States is sold on long-term power purchase agreements, which hedge the wind power producer against future price risks. However, a significant amount is sold as merchant power and therefore is exposed to fluctuations in future electricity prices (day-ahead and real-time)...
Along with many other Independent System Operators, the ERCOT ISO has been charged with the task of integrating renewable resources into the electric power system. A significant amount of this effort has been centered on wind energy. Wind power forecasting has been a key factor in being able to incorporate large Wind-powered Generation Resources (WGRs) into normal operations. Consequently, this paper...
The paper describes the methodology that has been developed for transmission system operators (TSOs) of Republic of Ireland, Eirgrid, and Northern Ireland, SONI the TSO in Northern Ireland, to study the effects of advanced wind power forecasting on optimal short-term power system scheduling. The resulting schedules take into account the electricity market conditions and feature optimal reserve scheduling...
As wind power penetrations increase dramatically, wind power forecasting is increasingly becoming one of the fundamental strategies to coordinate wind generators together with thermal or other traditional generators in hybrid power systems. This paper focuses on very short term wind speed forecast based on historical wind speed data. The term wind pattern is proposed in this paper to characterize...
This panel paper reviews the available techniques for wind power forecasting in the very short term time frame out to 30 minutes ahead. A generic approach is proposed where the most appropriate techniques are selected based on data availability and data characteristics. The need for appropriate data generation for development and testing of a generic approach is also discussed.
This paper reports new results in adopting entropy concepts to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind characteristics (mainly speed and direction) in wind parks connected to a power grid. Renyi's Entropy is combined with a Parzen Windows estimation of the error pdf to form the basis of three criteria (MEE, MCC and MEEF) under which neural...
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