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The scenario approach is a key tool in futures analysis. The likelihood of scenarios is evaluated by subjective judgment of analysts. In order to assert futures with higher certainty this article explores the notion of bounding scenarios. Making an analogy to the notion of mathematical bounds, bounding scenarios aim to exclude what will not occur rather than guess what will. The hope is that bounds...
In this paper, author applies the frontier production function approach to analyze the economic growth happened in North East of China with the panel data of three provinces in north-east of China during the period 1978 to 2008. Author finds that the contribution of input factors in the process of economic growth is decreasing gradually, and the contribution of total factor productivity is strong...
The total factor productivity is one of the important indexes to measure sustainable economic growth. According to the 1990–2008 Gansu services data, this paper empirically analyses the service industry total factor productivity growth in Gansu province by nonparametric Malmquist index method. It is concluded that there exist certain differences between technical efficiency and technical progress...
Globalization has highlighted change in national technology capability. Exogenous factors drive a country towards technological progress, and drive economic growth via international technology diffusion. Previous studies have stressed that innovative capacity is determined by regional or local social systems. This paper reconsiders these studies and develops a new perspective of evaluating national...
From the view of the relationship between energy consumption rate and the scientific and technological progress, industrial structure, energy consumption structure and environmental protection, this article set up a model of energy consumption rate of the evolution of Dalian with the application of complex adaptive systems theory. The use of emissions equivalent calculation method makes the calculation...
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