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With the current financial scandals and European debt crisis, corporate financial crisis prediction has become an essential task in the fields of financial and risk management. Numerous pre-warning mechanisms based on statistical or artificial intelligence theories have been introduced in the literature, yet no current pre-warning model presents the best performance under all measurements. With significant...
The subjects of the study are listed petrochemical companies in China. We regard ST as a symbol of financial crisis for an enterprise. T-test and relevant linear test are applied to determine the model variables and Logistic regression to build the forecasting model of financial crisis, then the data of ST enterprise samples and non-ST enterprise samples are used for analysis. With the forecasting...
This paper uses listed companies as research object, selects 102 2006–2008 ST companies and 102 paired normal companies as an analysis sample, the other 40 selected in 2009 as a test sample. Logistic Regression is used to constructed Early warning model, the results show that: The model that contains the three indicators — a return on assets, asset-liability ratio and total asset turnover is able...
Based on Fisher's Linear Discriminant Analysis, the paper proposed an early warning model to predict the bankruptcy possibility for construction companies in China. Sample and variable set of the study came from 56 privately owned Chinese construction companies and their financial ratios, and 27 companies' crisis occurred during the period 2008–2009. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to examine the...
The global financial crisis, triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage in 2007, has seriously affected the development of China's economy, making a large number of Chinese export-oriented enterprises faced with serious problems, such as profit decline, layoffs and even bankruptcy. This paper is set under the background of this global financial crisis and aiming at extracting implicit risk factors of...
SVM based model is constructed for predicting performances of Chinese listed companies. The paper firstly uses factor analysis, equal value difference test and correlation test to sieve the financial indicators and corporate governance variables separately for representative variables, and then uses the method of support vector machine for an empirical analysis. The research shows the model of SVM...
To overcome the shortages of the existing financial prediction models such as strict hypothesis, poor generalization ability, low prediction accuracy and low learning rate etc., a new early warning model of financial crisis have established for listed company using Extreme Learning Machine. From five dimensions of solvency, operating-ability, profitability, cash-ability and grow-ability, fifteen financial...
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