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Corporate decision makers always face challenges to decide whether to adopt a new technology with a decision often leading to significant subsequence in the corporations. Observational learning theory applies when a person uses observed behavior from others to infer something about the usefulness of the observed behavior. It is known that observational learning may lead to informational cascades when...
A military decision maker is usually confronted with the decision of effective execution time for special actions under uncertain temporal constraints to achieve desired effects. The optimization problem mentioned above is referred to as Robust Temporal Constraint Optimization Problem (RTCOP). Temporal parameters are usually denoted by a wall-clock time in real-world. That is, temporal variables constrained...
Influence diagrams (IDs) are powerful tools for representing and solving complex decision making problems. This paper presents a simulation-based approach for solving decision making problems formulated by hybrid IDs, which involve both discrete and continuous decision and chance variables. In the proposed method, Monte-Carlo simulation is applied in both approximating the expected conditional utility...
To efficiently compare Ranking and Selection procedures, we present a three-layer performance evaluation process. The two most popular formulations, namely the Bayes and Indifference Zone formulations, have a common representation analogous to convex risk measures used in quantitative risk management. We study decision makers' acceptance sets via an axiomatic approach and introduce a new performance...
Complexity of solving influence diagrams increases exponentially in the number of decision variables. In Limited Memory Influence Diagrams (LIMIDs), some decisions must be made simultaneously and cooperatively and some may be independent of others. This paper partitions decision variables into different classes by an equivalent relation which decision variables in one class are dependent of each other,...
During the process of building influence diagrams for real-world decision analysis, the most challenging task is probability elicitation from domain experts. Many human experts are used to describing probabilities by verbal or other inexactness expressions. It is hard for them to directly provide numerical probabilities. In this paper, we deal with this issue by using the Group Analytic Hierarchy...
This paper studies the decision-making process of disaster prevention. Firstly the theory and the steps of the extensive Bayesian method are introduced. Then the method is used to solve decision-making problem of disaster prevention. Finally, the feasibility and the rationality of our decision method are analyzed by an example. It is shown that by using the extended Bayesian method, not only the decisions...
The importance of employees' knowledge training in enterprise management was expatiated, and the deficiencies of employees' knowledge training management were pointed out firstly. On the base of above, it was figured out that, the knowledge lack of employees must be understood through analyzing the employees' knowledge requirements firstly if enterprise carries out knowledge training effectively....
In traditional hypotheses test, the sample data and hypotheses are crispness. In this paper we consider hypotheses test for mean in normal populations with fuzzy data when variance of population is unknown. In this fuzzy test, we will make a fuzzy decision for rejection or acceptance null hypothesis. This fuzzy decision shows a degree of acceptability and degree of rejection of the null hypothesis...
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