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Social influence has been a widely accepted phenomenon in social networks for decades. In this paper, we study influence from the perspective of structure, and focus on the simplest group structure — triad. We analyze two different genres of behavior: Retweeting on Weibo1 and Paying on CrossFire2. We have several intriguing observations from these two networks. First, different internal structures...
Small and medium-sized enterprises play a very important role in China's economic and social development. Their development is inseparable from the financial support, and the development of credit business is also an important aspect of bank's operation. At the time of solving the problem of financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises, how to manage credit risk will become an important...
A priori knowledge neural network is presented to model on the relationship between the port logistics capacity and coastal marine economic growth in Zhejiang province in China. Compared to other methods (such as general GM (1, 1) based time series model), the PKNN with multivariate and time series method has better performance. And, it is validated by predicting the level of coastal ocean economic...
The reasonable scale of logistics parks should be taken into account at the beginning of the construction of logistics parks, since it is the resource of all the other works of the logistics parks, such as planning, evaluating and so on. In this paper, the effects of industrial structure on the scale of logistics parks are analysed through qualitative and quantitative aspects. In the qualitative aspect,...
In this paper, firstly logistics demand is introduced and indicator items are discussed. Then forecasting of logistics demand scale is illustrated. And GM(1,1) model is discussed in detail. Based on freight traffic and freight ton-kilometers, a novel forecasting model using Grey System Theory for logistics demand scale in Guangdong Province is proposed. Experiment result shows that relative error...
Product diffusion research has a very important strategic significance in supporting the manager's decision-making in the enterprises, and has far-reaching effects in the products' R&D, popularizing, and updating processes. This paper reviews the domestic and abroad literatures in product diffusion field. The existing diffusion models, the research filed, and the parametric estimation methods...
Different from the inventory control of civil material that pays attention to economic benefits, the most important factor in inventory control of military material is time effectiveness. In order to improve the operation efficiency of the military material supply system, the inventory control strategy of military matarial was researched. Basic model of inventory control was researched firstly, and...
This paper designs a set of enterprise credit rating index system,in addition to traditional financial ratios, it joined the non-financial factors. then used the logical regression approach to create company's credit rating model, the result shows that the overall discrimination rate reached 95%, the models predict results accurately.
Based on the observed data, which are the historical throughputs of Shantou Port of China, this paper attains the required curve for prediction using the calculation process of Pearson type III distribution. According to the estimated economic conditions of the year for which the throughput will be predicted, the predicted throughput of that year can be determined on the curve. Also, the results from...
Wavelet neural network is a neural network combining the wavelet theory with neural network theory, which avoids nonlinear optimization problems such as blindness of the design of BP neural network structure and local optimum, greatly simplifying the training. The use of wavelet neural networks to forecast regional logistics demand provided an important reference for regional logistics systematic...
Credit risk assessment of companies has been an important part of the study on risk management for a long time, especially for the default risk of companies with a high liability-to-asset rate. In this paper, we use factor analysis method to establish a logistic regression model and make an empirical analysis on the credit risk of listed companies of Capital-Intensive Industries. The results show...
The paper employs Granger causality test to analyze the inner relationships among factors that attribute to the scale development of higher education, and builds an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and a Logistic Model (LM) to forecast the total demand and supply of the scale development of higher education in the process of urbanization in Jiangxi province. The results show: Firstly, the Granger causality...
This paper proposes an integrated forecasting framework based on the TEI@I methodology for port logistics forecasting. The framework analyzes and forecasts the port logistics time series data with a few steps. Firstly, census X12 seasonal adjustment method is applied to decompose the time series to several components: trend and cycle component, irregular component and seasonal component. Secondly,...
Because logistics system was an uncertain, nonlinear, dynamic and complicated system, it was difficult to describe it by traditional methods. The support vector machine (SVM) has the ability of strong nonlinear function approach, it has the ability of strong generalization and it also has the feature of global optimization. In this paper, a modeling and forecasting method of urban logistics demand...
Logistic regression is a very common method in financial prediction. In order to establish the more effective model, the paper introduces factor analysis into logistic regression to overcome multiple co-linearity among variables and meanwhile retain useful information of original variables. The result shows that this model has better predictive capability. This suggests that for policymakers and others...
The fast development of the city economy need requires the efficient and logistical supportive service provided by the modern logistic system for the entire course. The spiral propulsion relation between the modern logistics and the city economy represents the characteristics of the cooperating development. In this essay the inner coupling mechanism and stages of the city logistics and economic development...
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