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This research aims to develop and analyze a model about the explanatory factors of the capital structure through financial leverage (leverage) of manufacturing companies of Ecuador. To meet the goal has been realized a sample of 113 manufacturing companies that produce textiles for the years 2000 to 2012, the same information was obtained from the superintendency of companies of Ecuador. The methodology...
This paper establishes an original methodology to forecast macro-economy based on the term structure of credit spreads. It combines the traditional Svensson model with genetic algorithms to obtain the interest rate term structures of government bonds and corporate bonds, and calculates credit spreads as their differences. The principal component analysis is used to derive three factors of the term...
The main purpose of this study is to reveal the regularity of the interaction between Shanghai Composite Index and macroeconomic variables. The method used in the study is the path analysis in structural equation modeling. The results show that the consumer price index and industrial production value added (lag two) are the observable exogenous variables. Money supply, savings deposits of urban and...
Inflation is one of the most important macroeconomic variables. However, the behavior of inflation is so complicated that both economists and statisticians have strived to model and forecast inflation for years. In this study, the linear AS-AD model and nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) technique are both employed to have a better understanding of the inflation behavior in China from 1992...
Balance of payments is one of the main economic goals for an open economy. This paper uses the unit root test, co-integration test and VAR model to make an empirical analysis on the relationship between China's current account, capital account and GDP from 1982 to 2009. The results showed that the co-integration relationship between the current account and GDP, GDP does Granger cause current account...
Since correct prediction of bankruptcy prediction of a company is very important for investors, lenders and managers, most efforts have been done to improve the predictive capability of corporate bankruptcy prediction models. Most previous studies use corporate financial statement to do bankruptcy prediction. However, corporate performance is always affected by macroeconomic conditions. This study...
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the environmental and economic effects of trade liberalization, we use a Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the impact of a trade bloc consisting of the US and China. We find some macro-economic variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), disposable income, import, export, production and consumption increases for two members of the trade...
This paper investigates whether dynamics in key macroeconomic indicators in China significantly explain stock returns. The dataset covers the period from January 1996 to December 2006. Using the impulse response, the study finds that in terms of magnitude, persistence, and significance, the transmission of shocks emanating from industrial production and money supply to stock market are more pronounced...
A fundamental phase in the electrical systems planning is the temporal and spatial load forecasting. By changes in the structures of electricity markets and implementing policies for energy optimization, it is necessary to consider new variables that detail of better form the behavior's forecasting and expansion of the electrical consumption to medium and long time. This work proposes a global load...
Stock exchange market, that has function of accommodating capital and optimizing resource allocation, is a part of capital markets. And it play important role of economy development. Research of relationship between stock exchange market and macroeconomic variables has realism significance. This paper, according to Shanghai stock exchange market index representing stock market, chooses 8 macroeconomic...
Political and social issues play a big role in economical systems. Macroeconomic variables which are affected by the above mentioned factors can be used in economical forecasting. Time series are used as a very powerful tool in economical systems for short time predicting. As time series predict the future output according to the past behaviors of the system, therefore they can not sense sudden changes...
The purpose of this paper is to determine whether macroeconomic variables, in particular, money supply and budget deficit, are important in predicting stock prices in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea. Quarterly data on stock price indices, money supply and budget deficits are employed in this study. Our results are broadly consistent with the general economic literature on macroeconomics...
Based on the data from 1987 to 2003 released by the China Statistical Bureau, this paper analyzes the correlation between the two variables of development of Chinese non-state owned enterprises and cultivation of scientific and technological (S&T) competence by the soft of SPSS, and then according to the non-stationary characteristic of macroeconomic variables, stationary test is done by Eviews...
This paper developed and estimated a model which is capable of explaining movements in the conditional volatility of the Shanghai stock market. Among the most important determinants of the conditional volatility of the China stock market are found to be the conditional volatilities of industrial production and money supply which are directly associated with stock market volatility, and the interest...
The paper investigates determinants of pricing in international telephone service markets. An econometric model is developed to study the impact of different telecommunications-specific and macroeconomic variables over collection rate differentials and traffic imbalance between countries. Data from 24 worldwide national markets strengthen empirical findings from the theoretical analysis and make the...
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