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Cyber attacks are a critical threat to government infrastructure, commercial enterprises and personal devices. When belligerents attack cyber systems, they need to spread laterally to reach high value targets and communicate with their command and control sites. Intuitively, a layered defense including intrusion detection systems will limit the adversary's exploitation of the target. We apply lessons...
Surveillance of epidemic outbreaks and spread from social media is an important tool for governments and public health authorities. Machine learning techniques for now casting the flu have made significant inroads into correlating social media trends to case counts and prevalence of epidemics in a population. There is a disconnect between data-driven methods for forecasting flu incidence and epidemiological...
In this paper we introduce the ODD protocol, proposed in ecology for easing the communication and replication of Individual Based Models (IBM). First, we use it to describe a realistic model in epidemiology, which deals with the local determinants of the propagation of the H5N1 virus. From this description we first point out the advantages of ODD. Then we focus on its weaknesses, the major ones being...
Pandemic influenza has great potential to cause large and rapid increases in deaths and serious illness. The objective of this paper is to develop an agent-based model to simulate the spread of pandemic influenza (novel H1N1) in Egypt. The proposed multi-agent model is based on the modeling of individuals' interactions in a space-time context. The proposed model involves different types of parameters...
Bioterrorism represents a serious threat to the security of civilian populations. The nature of an epidemic requires careful consideration of all possible vectors over which an infection can spread. Our work takes the SIR model and creates a detailed hybridization of existing simulations to allow a large search space to be explored. We then create a Stackelberg game to evaluate all possibilities with...
Bioterrorism represents a significant threat to society. The lack of successful attacks that have resulted in true epidemics have created a need for data that can be generated from existing known factors. We have taken the popular susceptible-infected-recovery model and created a hybridized model that balances the simplicity of the original with an approximation of what more complex agent-based models...
The study of epidemics is a crucial issue to several areas. An epidemic can have devastating economic and social consequences. A single crop disease in Kansas could destroy the yearly income of many farmers. Previous work using graph theory has determined a universal epidemic threshold found in the graph topology for a binary contact network in the compartmental susceptible-infected (SI) analysis...
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