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Based on the statistical data during the period from 2003 to 2008 released by National Bureau of Statistics of China, this paper focused on forecasting the amount of the scientists and technicians in China, using GM (1, 1) model and regression model. The result of this empirical study is that the grey prediction theory can fit the scientists and technicians amount development precisely in China. The...
Grey Model is a useful method for forecasting with limited data and has been widely used in a great variety of disciplines. This study gives a brief y review of the operation of grey prediction, and then use the GM(1,1) model to forecast flood year in Nanjing based on the rainfall data and the Flood index from 1951-2000. The forecasting results suggest that there could possibly be a flood year in...
In view of the fact that the system of grain yield is affected by many factors and has complicated non-linear characteristic, a combined forecasting model by using multi-indicator for grain yield in China is constructed based on BP network and grey system, which can be named GM(1, 1)-BP model. Seven index were chosen from agricultural production conditions, he primitive data of the multi-factors from...
With the cointegration theory, oil consumption, national economic growth, population, oil price, industrial structure, energy structure and technical progress variables are discussed in this paper. By analyses, it is found that cointegration relationship exist among variables of oil consumption, industrial structure, energy structure and technical progress. The error correction model about oil consumption...
ISO9000 certification has become a worldwide phenomenon, spreading across all countries and regions of the world. It is an innovation in nature for the organizations to introduce and implement ISO9000 standard, and diffusion path of ISO9000 standard can be described with S type curve. In the paper, we establish a grey Verhulst forecasting model of ISO9000 certification in Guangxi by using the data...
ISO9000 certification has become a worldwide phenomenon, spreading across all countries and regions of the world. It is a management innovation in nature for the organizations to introduce and implement ISO9000 standard, and diffusion path of ISO9000 standard can be described with S type curve. In the paper, we establish a grey Verhulst model for diffusion forecasting of ISO9000 certification by using...
Influenced by a number of uncertain factors, Unemployment rate of college graduates has characteristics of stochastic nature and fluctuations. Single gray GM (1,1)model could not fit these data better, and its forecasting accuracy is lower. However, Markov forecast can make up for this deficiency. Drawing on the virtue of gray model and Markov forecasting model, this paper presents a grey-Markov forecasting...
The fundamental of neural network and its application are introduced firstly. Then the main factors which affect the runoff and the sediment transport volume in the problems of the water and sediment fluxes in the Yellow River Mouth during the flood and non-flood period are analyzed. Furthermore, the BP model is set up by using the program in the toolbox of the neural network under the environment...
Based on the theory of grey system and the data of SO2 emission from 2002 to 2008 in China, we build a grey model GM (1, 1) for forecasting SO2 emission in China from 2009 to 2020 and test its precision. The results indicate that the forecasting model is accurate and precise, and SO2 emission could increase in the future in China. So it is difficult to realize the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan"...
According to the PM10 monitoring data of Harbin City in China during 2001~2007, the paper establishes a conventional grey forecasting model GM(1,1) and its metabolic version based on grey system theory. Four different methods are employed to test the accuracy of two models and the metabolic model is proved superior to conventional one as a good prediction approach. After that, the paper predicts the...
China's consumption and production of natural gas have been rising steadily since the government set a target of raising the proportion of natural gas in total energy consumption to 5.3 percent by 2010 from 2.8 percent in 2005. China's production of natural gas rose 12.3 percent year on year to 76.1 billion cubic meters in 2008 as the government promoted cleaner energy, and China consumed 67.3 billion...
Grey system theory is a new cross course by China famous scholar professor Deng Julong founded in 1982 . grey GM(1,1) model usually be used simulation and prediction of equidistant monitoring data sequent and gained a series of significant achievement in natural science and social science. But to non-equidistant and high growth data sequent, has to build the grey GM(1,1) model through equidistant...
Evaluation index are long been thought as very accurately reflect stock price by people in China. In this paper, we build theory models to study the relationship between volume, P/B (Price-to-Book value Ratio), P/S (Price-to-Sale Ratio) and P/CF (Price-to-Cash Flow Ratio) and stock market volatility. In current China stock market, individual stock price volatility is a complicated function. The resulting...
Based on the statistical data during the period from 2003 to 2008 released by Henan Statistical Bureau in China, this paper focused on forecasting the amount of the scientists and technicians of Henan province in China, using GM (1, 1) model and regression model. The result of this empirical study is that the grey prediction theory can fit the scientists and technicians amount development precisely...
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