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In recent years, with its sustained and rapid economic development, the contradiction between supply and demand on China's petroleum is daily outstanding, and it makes the dependence rate of foreign oil resources going higher and higher. With the method of time series analysis and based on the data of China's oil self-sufficiency and proven reserves from 1980 to 2009, ARIMA models which is used for...
In the competitive petroleum markets, oil price forecasting is becoming increasingly relevant to producers and consumers. This paper develops a structural econometric model of the Brent crude spot price using the explanatory variable of defined relative inventory and OPEC production to analyze and forecast short-run oil price. A Hodrick-Prescott filter method presented obtains the relative inventory...
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