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We model the long-term implications of leaving the EU for the UK economy using NiGEM, the National Institute's large scale structural global econometric model. We examine a scenario in which the UK has no free trade agreement with the EU, focusing on four key shocks: a permanent reduction in the size of the UK's export market share in EU member countries, an increase in tariffs, a permanent reduction...
Similar to bilateral or regional preferential trade agreements (PTAs), bilateral investment treaties (BITs) have proliferated over the past 50years. The purpose of this study is to provide the first systematic empirical analysis of the economic determinants of BITs and of the likelihood of BITs between pairs of countries using a qualitative choice model, in a manner consistent with explaining PTAs...
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