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Risk assessment is the core as well as the most difficult and time-consuming part in real estate project investment and decision-making. In this paper, on the basis of project investment risk assessment methods widely used at home and abroad currently, combined with modern fuzzy mathematical theory and methodology, a network model appropriate for the investment risk assessment of the overall process...
As the pillar industry of the national economics, e-commerce nowadays has played a great role in the GDP growth and it owns the characters of both high risk and high earning rate. Taking the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation into risks analysis and with the help of the analytical hierarchy process, all the risks arising from e-commerce process were assigned by the proper weights, which aimed at the quantitative...
Risk management is an important part of the IT project management. It plays a vital role in successful IT project. Through discussion with experienced project managers and based on previous research of IT project risks management, the paper concludes 13 risk factors throughout the whole lifecycle of IT projects in a company. The index system of IT project risk evaluation is established. Then a multi-target...
Employing the triangular fuzzy technology, the article establishes a health risk assessment model for small scale water supply source. By using this model not only the value of probable risk indexes of specific substance influencing people's health but also their corresponding membership degrees (or relative confidence levels) can be obtained. The model is applied to assess the environmental health...
The indices system of risk review and a multi-level fuzzy synthetic evaluation model of virtual enterprise based on entropy-weighted were established. Not only make full use of the indices information. But also avoided subjective sense of weight-coefficient,and it mends the shortage of traditional synthetic evaluation methods. The practicality and reliability of the method is demonstrated in a example.
Power industry is capital and technology intensive, which is also an important foundation for public utility nature of the industry. It is closely connected with many factors, such as the electricity market, capital, and technology. Better risk analysis and management in power construction investment can avoid blind investment, which guarantee power construction projects go smooth. Therefore the investment...
High risk and high profit are the remarkable characters of enterprise technological innovation. The higher innovation degree is, the higher uncertainty will be. It is very important to analyze entirely all kinds of risk factors which can influence technological innovation and evaluate the process of technological innovation. In this paper, based on the index system of enterprise technological innovation,...
With the process of economic globalization accelerating, the cooperation among enterprises becomes closer than before. Joint managed inventory was adopted to lower production costs and get high profit. However it is the key and foundation to keep the whole supply chain efficient and orderly whether the profit allocation is reasonable. The strategy of JMI in the supply chain was studied. The methods...
BOT projects are affected by several risks and uncertainties. One of the most important issues in this type of contract is to determine the length of concession period considering these uncertainties. The previous studies have developed several models to determine the concession period. However, the uncertainties are not taking into account in most of the previous works. Moreover, none of the previous...
The comprehensive meteorological disaster risk evaluation model is proposed based on information diffusion, fuzzy membership functions and hierarchical structure ideas. The convergence, consistency and availability of the iterative scheme for determination of parameters are researched. The proposed hierarchical structure model of comprehensive risk evaluation is proved to be proper and practical by...
Risk management of engineering project is a complicated uncertainty problem. Based on the theory of set pair analysis (SPA), stochastic simulation of triangular fuzzy numbers, herein, a novel analysis model for the project risk management was discussed. A concept of multi-element connection number of the set pair was introduced to express the hierarchy and fuzziness of membership between the evaluation...
Developed a novel model named dynamic neural network model for the risk evaluation of an investment project. The fundamental identification of weight was given based on Triangle Fuzzy Number and Analytical Hierarchy Process (TFN-AHP), through combining the weight with dynamic decision group, a formula of dynamic normalized weight vector was established by Clustering, and the final weight vector of...
In supply chain risk management, supply risk management is thus recognized as a important problem which can help core manufacturer more efficiently. This paper is aimed to present a supply risk analysis methods based on trapezoidal fuzzy numbers similarity to solve this problem. By using two linguistic terms Probability of failure and Severity of loss, the supply risk of manufacturer can be calculated...
Because the risk factors cannot be accurately measured it is very difficult to evaluate the risk of supply chain. By introducing hesitancy degree into the risk evaluation process, an intuitionistic fuzzy model is developed to describe the problem. With this model, an algorithm is proposed to evaluate the risk of supply chain. Example shows that the proposed method is superior to the existing ones...
In response to economic globalization and improved information technique, traditional enterprise is moving towards a form of strategic network known as virtual enterprise. Virtual enterprise is a new type of organization which is dynamic and temporary. Firstly, the paper analyzes the background virtual enterprise comes into being. The necessity of risk evaluation for virtual enterprise is also discussed...
This paper discusses the problem of portfolio selection in fuzzy environment. We propose an active portfolio management approach which has practicable steps in fuzzy environment. Since Economic Value Added reflects the true value of enterprises from shareholders' perceptive, we innovatively use the management idea of Economic Value Added to select perspective securities. Then considering the intuitive...
This paper considers a new equilibrium pricing vector with various types of investor's subjectivity based on the standard Mean-Variance theory. In order to present each investor's subjectivity, the fuzzy theory is introduced. In a way similar to the traditional MV-based equilibrium approach, the analytical equilibrium pricing vector is obtained using the degree of credibility considering credibility...
Generalized fuzzy numbers can deal with uncertain information in a more flexible manner than that of normal fuzzy numbers. In this paper, a food safety risk analysis model based on generalized fuzzy number,is proposed. First, a modified similarity measure is proposed. Then, the food safety risk analysis model is presented step by step. The modified operation rules on generalized fuzzy numbers have...
With its ever growing industrialization and urbanization, China's oil demand has been increasing rapidly. In order to alleviate the conflict of domestic demand and resources shortage, nowadays China has to develop and utilize the oil resources overseas. This paper presents the design of risk management system on overseas oil development and utilization based on MapXtreme & C# tools, including...
To solve the problem in risk evaluation method for project risk, this paper proposes a fuzzy theory model for project risk evaluation based on the project risk factor pool. The model solves, to some extent, the problem of how to analyze and deal with the widely existing fuzzy in risk evaluation, so as to provide a quantitative basis for correct risk assessment and to provide the decision makers with...
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