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The procedure of the aggregation of experts' individual probability estimates for solving probability inference problems in probability trees are proposed. The suggested methodology allows to consider specific forms of uncertainty arising from the process of interaction between the expert judgments. The structure of such interactions may be different in nature — they can be consistent, compatible,...
Due to significant economies of scale, the capital-intensive involved and government regulations that still don't rule a perfect competition environment, the power generation industry is usually organized as a market with oligopolistic competition. In this type of market structure, participating agents implement different strategies or games to exercise market power in order to increase their profits...
The principle and potential of lifetime monitoring are addressed. Due to the growing pressure caused by liberalization, customers focus increasingly on the economic performance of new products. Specifically, maintenance costs and availability are becoming key factors. We briefly introduce the general concept of condition monitoring and suggest how its benefits can be quantified in an economic sense...
Specific characteristics of construction project, such as long construction period, unfixed production sites, mostly open field operations and so on, result that many uncertain and uncontrollable factors exist in construction. It is necessary to systemically re-analysis and recombine whole construction cost in accordance with uncertainty level, and present corresponding methods and measures of management...
In conventional investment project, the economic meaning of internal rate of return can be expressed as: reliability of bringing a return that investors require in a project or ability of resisting risk and uncertainty during a project's life. Because risk factors can be transformed into fixed cost, the fixed cost (risk factors) can deducted from cash flows of the project, and a new IRR can be calculated...
The aim of the work is the presentation, critical analysis and the evaluation of contemporary ideas and dilemmas on the basic hypotheses and axioms for consumer behavior modeling. Considerations in the work include the ideas on consumer sovereignty, supposition of consistency and persistency of consumer choice, choice rationality in the conditions of uncertainty and risks, the problems of rational...
Cost-benefit analysis has long been used in decision making about public health and security. Frequently, risk and uncertainty are involved, and benefit and cost are not evenly shared by all stakeholders in the activities where public welfare is concerned. The result of cost-benefit analysis may be controversial because it does not consider the conflict of interest among the stakeholders. In this...
Enterprise risk conduction is the course that a little beginning departure or uncertainty has been transferred to process of operation, because of disturbance of interior and exterior uncertain factors in enterprise. The article firstly establish multi-dimensional characteristics matter-element matrix about subject which can describe the quantitative process of enterprise risk conduction, then discusses...
Most of us recognize that when society's collective trends expose us to disasters which may threaten our survival, some rather radical, i.e., fundamental, actions may be necessary to forestall such untoward events. Yet, what signals might trigger such action? Pronouncements that the ldquoend is nearrdquo have not proven to be very effective, and rightfully so. We suggest rather that the impetus for...
The purpose of this study is to investigate the trade-off relationship between value creation (characterized by EVA) and attendant risks for R&D portfolios. The empirical data include 485 manufacturing and high tech Taiwanese firms during the years 2004 to 2007. Empirical results indicate that the percentage changes of EVA are sensitive to the time horizons used in amortized R&D capital and...
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