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Risk management of engineering project is a complicated uncertainty problem. Based on the theory of set pair analysis (SPA), stochastic simulation of triangular fuzzy numbers, herein, a novel analysis model for the project risk management was discussed. A concept of multi-element connection number of the set pair was introduced to express the hierarchy and fuzziness of membership between the evaluation...
For portfolio value-at-risk analysis, a novel approach is proposed based on Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and Mixture Density Network (MDN). Specifically, the original data is first transformed into separate signals which are independent from each other through ICA. Then using MDN their conditional density functions are fitted, from which the joint distribution function of the multivariate...
In a construction project where duration truly equals money, the management of duration is critical, thus predicting the likelihood of duration may play a key role towards project success. On the basis of the researches of other scholars, this paper analyzed the traditional probability analysis method for duration risk in program evaluation and review technique(PERT). On basis of that it simulates...
Risk assessment is applied to the study of urban waterlogging. A series of methods which are suitable for the risk study of urban waterlogging are presented. Based on the hydraulic model built by InfoWorks Collection System software, the situation of normal state/ pump failure under special return period is simulated. Also, the seeper depth and recoverability theory are selected as the quantitative...
In this paper, the study is how to make use of VB program for the project risk analysis. Program design is based on the idea of the principles of Monte Carlo. The key is the set-up of random variables and steps for realization.
Economic risk analysis of flood control engineering system is very important in risk management of flood disaster. The triangular fuzzy numbers theory was used to describe and deal with randomicity and fuzziness of economic risk system of flood control engineering, and the shortage and imprecision of datum information. In order to deal with the difficulties of operations of triangular fuzzy numbers...
In this paper, the Monte Carlo simulation method is applied to the economic evaluation of construction project. By using multi-element variation analysis method, we can directly deal with the uncertain risk elements and describe the uncertainty in the form of probability, after using the independent simulated tests on the economic evaluation project N times, we can get the results to predict and analyze...
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