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Due to ambitious climate targets, an upcoming change from fossil-fueled to renewable power generation is expected. As a consequence of the unpredictable nature of relevant influence factors, further development of the generation system is clouded by uncertainties. Under these circumstances, the future development path remains vague. Hence, this paper describes a method to determine the development...
DC Optimal Power Flow (DCOPF) model calculates locational marginal prices (LMPs) in order to optimize the total operation cost of system. Generally, no account is taken for the cost of network topology uncertainty. In this paper, first, a DCOPF algorithm is presented to consider network topology uncertainty. The optimization function algorithm has three items that depend on the line and unit parameters...
In electricity markets, the network is expected to transfer more power to promote profit, but the transfer capability will be affected by uncertainties. In order to quantify the probability and consequence of these uncertainties, the theory of risk is proposed to assess the available transfer capability (ATC). The means clustering method is used to layer the ATC values considering the uncertainties...
We analyze the impacts of adopting advanced weather forecasting systems at different levels of the decision-making hierarchy of the power grid. Using case studies, we show that state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models can provide high-precision forecasts and uncertainty information that can significantly enhance the performance of planning, scheduling, energy management, and feedback...
This paper provides a summary of the application of California ISO approach in evaluating economic benefit of the Sunrise Powerlink transmission project, which was proposed by San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E). The California ISO (CAISO) applied its Transmission Economic Assessment Methodology (TEAM) in its original evaluation of the economic benefits of the Sunrise Powerlink Project...
The focus of the paper is on the long-term effects of the construction of a physical interconnection between SEE and Italy using a 1000-MW DC link from Italy to Albania. The impacts of this interconnection path are significant for the markets in Italy and SEE. The modeling issues are discussed and the simulation tool used to emulate the possible developments is presented. The use of scenario analysis...
State estimation plays the key role in real-time bulk power system reliability operation and economical market operation. Active transactions across the regional transmission systems are integrated nature of today's electricity markets. To ensure stable and adequate SE solution, EMS engineers are paying more attentions on external network models, which usually deal with real-time operation uncertainties...
Planning of energy systems is confronted with dual pressures from economic development and environmental protection, and associated with various uncertainties. In this paper, an inexact energy system optimization model (IESOM) was developed, through integrating interval-parameter and mixed integer programming (IMILP) within an energy systems management framework. IESOM would minimize the total cost...
Since early 2000, long-term forward contracts or power purchase agreements (PPA) auctions have been the main mechanisms to ensure long-run supply adequacy in many growing economies, specially in Latin American, such as, Brazil, Chile, etc. With this framework, two issues are of special concern to Government agencies and market agents: (i) testing the design of the auction and its impacts on the power...
Electricity market has complex market rules, and its operation with great uncertainty. In this paper, the real options model of operating capital value of generator for spinning reserve is constructed under uncertainty market conditions including uncertainty electricity price, reserve price and fuel price. VaR concept is introduced, and quantitative risk assessment of the operating capital value of...
The objective of economic dispatch (ED) problem is minimizing the operating cost, and finding the point where the total output of the generations equals the total power that must be delivered. In that point the incremental cost of power generation is also equal for all generators. Considering the presence of uncertainty and inaccuracy in the data, fuzzy set theory is an appropriate method to solve...
The objective of this work is to discuss the modeling of auctions of long-term electricity supply contracts for new capacity in Brazil. The modeling of risks such as price-quantity (hydrological) risk, project completion risk, environmental constraints, climate change and regulatory risks are discussed. An analytical model will be developed to price these risks and case studies will be presented for...
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