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This paper proposes the analysis of probabilistic equilibrium models of electricity markets by means of point estimated methods. We follow a model to address generation companies' strategic analysis based on a conjectured price-response market equilibrium representation. Furthermore, we consider uncertainty in power system demands. The resulting probabilistic equilibrium problem is then solved using...
In the application of kriging model in the field of simulation, the parameters of the model are likely to be estimated from the simulated data. This introduces parameter estimation uncertainties into the overall prediction error, and this uncertainty can be further aggravated by random noise in the stochastic simulation. In this paper, a Bayesian metamodeling approach for kriging prediction is proposed...
Risk management of engineering project is a complicated uncertainty problem. Based on the theory of set pair analysis (SPA), stochastic simulation of triangular fuzzy numbers, herein, a novel analysis model for the project risk management was discussed. A concept of multi-element connection number of the set pair was introduced to express the hierarchy and fuzziness of membership between the evaluation...
Risk assessment (RA) can be considered to be a sub-system of risk management (RM). Some socioeconomic aspects of creating uncertainty in a residential development in a South African case study are discussed within a systems context. The cultural dimension creating uncertainty in the residential development undertaken by a Chinese company in South Africa is also explored. Conceptual risk simulation...
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