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The present paper focus on the matrix form of the non-equigap GM (1, 1) model and its modeling mechanism with its parameter estimating via the weakening buffer operator. This paper also uses matrix formula to study the common characteristics of various forms for different weakening buffer operators. Research shows that the matrix form of this grey model is convenience to express the modeling mechanism...
In this paper, the method of GM (1, 1) modeling based on arccot(x) transformation is put forward. It is proved that the series after this transformation can not only needs the condition of modeling GM (1,1), but the smooth degree is much better than that by other transformations, so the method can widen the range of application of grey mode1. The practical application shows the effectiveness of the...
Network flow is an important parameter for measuring network operation load and status, it is also the important parameter that plays an important role in network planning and flow management etc. In flow management, the flow model is used to evaluate access control mechanism and predict network performance. We have proposed a new network forecasting method on the basis of grey neural network study,...
On the basis of grey theory model for medium-long term load forecasting, the paper improves the traditional grey model and brings forth the grey residual forecasting model for less prediction errors. At the same time, it uses fixed weight method of forecasting model--that is to choose weight with average precision of each model to build a optimization combination forecasting model. It forecasts with...
Grey model and support vector machine are fit for prediction in the small size of data, their advantages and disadvantages are probed in this paper at first. And then, the combined model is proposed, which combines grey model and support vector machine with optimal weights. The weights are obtained and optimized by minimizing the sum of squared residuals standard. Some experiments compared with grey...
The forecast of the demand for the highway transportation is extremely important theoretically and practically since the road is the national infrastructure. The original GM(1,1) models have been analyzed, and their shortcomings in the road forecast have been pointed out. Because sometimes the precision of grey model cannot meet the requirement of actual forecasting, a novel improved GM(1,1) model...
Other than directly investigate the relationships among factors in a complex system or a large amount of samples, grey model is more suitable to forecast county-level fiscal income & expenditure with fewer samples and time series data for it can seek the transformation pattern by coordinating originality data. The paper studies the county- level fiscal income and expenditure forecasting based...
The grain yield time series is a non-steady time series that has the definite dynamic tendency and stronger random fluctuation. Therefore, we first use the grey GM(1, 1) model to obtain the tendency term, and then the generalized trigonometric model is used to catch the periodic phenomenon from the data for improving forecasting accuracy. The grey model with the trigonometric residual modification...
Based on the theory of grey system and the data of SO2 emission from 2002 to 2008 in China, we build a grey model GM (1, 1) for forecasting SO2 emission in China from 2009 to 2020 and test its precision. The results indicate that the forecasting model is accurate and precise, and SO2 emission could increase in the future in China. So it is difficult to realize the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan"...
Forecasting of energy consumption has always been an essential part of energy planning and policy. This paper presents grey model (GM), multiple regression model (MRM) and the integration model of grey model and multiple regression model (IGMMRM) to forecast the number and trend of energy consumption in Zhejiang. The three prediction models established are the highly accurate forecasting, but the...
The daily clearing price curve in electricity market varied with multi-period and strong fluctuation characteristic. When grey GM (1, 1) model is used in forecast, the forecast error exceeded the permitted precision. This is because GM (1, 1) model is invalidated only if the price series did not follow the rule of exponential growth. In this case, grey model with period residual modification is proposed,...
Based on the actual urban residential water demand of Xi'an, the Radial Basis Function (RBF) artificial neural network was used to forecast the urban residential water demand. RBF artificial neural network model was employed based on two input variables of population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), one output variable of urban residential water demand. The performances in RBF forecasting of different...
In this paper, a forecasting method, combining grey model (GM) with partial least squares regression (PLS), was applied to forecasting city terminal energy consumption for the first time. PLS is of the advantage of overcoming the correlative affect among independent variables, distinguishing the system signal from noises, and explaining dependent variables well; GM (1, 1) model is able to overcome...
Precision is important in judging measure instruments quality and tracing to the source of measure errors. recision forecast present an effective precision control methods, but forecast and combined forecast technology is researched less in measuring instruments precision forecast. The theory of Linear combination forecast is very simple and it be applied in many projects, but it has some drawbacks,...
The port plays an irreplaceable role both in the development of national economy and regional economy at present. Port throughput is an important basis for the construction of port. Grey forecast theory could reveal features of the development and changes in the throughput of the port. So it is an effective tool in research the port throughput .This article conducts the research to the throughput...
This paper presents a hidden Markov model (HMM) based prognosis method for prediction of equipment health. HMM allows modeling the time duration of the hidden states and therefore is capable of prognosis. The estimated state duration probability distributions can be used to predict the remaining useful life of the systems. The previous HMM based prognosis algorithm assumed that the transition probabilities...
Inventory management is an important part of the operation management of enterprises, which is based on the amount of sales un-house, but the uncertainty of customer demands is the foremost problem perplexing managers. In the management of the enterprise's production, the increasingly identified stock management is confronted with the puzzling question that the stock demand is unsteady. Taking advantage...
The rural GDP forecasting is an important decision basis for government as well as rural relative corporations. The grey model is adopted here to simulate the exponential increasing trend of it. Because of the mean approximation in dispersing the first order differential equation affect the forecasting precise of grey model itself, the PSO method is used to search the optimum proportion point in dispersing...
The annual electric power consumption is one of the most important factors in operation decisions of Chinese electric power generation groups. The grey model is feasible method to deal with this trend extension problem with few data. But the simple approximation in dispersing the first order differential equation affects it forecasting precise. Based on adjusting the positions of each particle, the...
The power load forecasting precision being influenced by many factors, the traditional forecasting tools are not very taking the role. In fact, BP network has the characteristics of the applicable and self-learning, and grey method has the growth characteristics,this paper used the correcting coefficient to improved the grey method, so the grey BP network method can better reflect the increasing and...
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