The Infona portal uses cookies, i.e. strings of text saved by a browser on the user's device. The portal can access those files and use them to remember the user's data, such as their chosen settings (screen view, interface language, etc.), or their login data. By using the Infona portal the user accepts automatic saving and using this information for portal operation purposes. More information on the subject can be found in the Privacy Policy and Terms of Service. By closing this window the user confirms that they have read the information on cookie usage, and they accept the privacy policy and the way cookies are used by the portal. You can change the cookie settings in your browser.
In this paper, we discuss various economic indicators and the theory of predicting them using autoregressive models. We then construct a VAR(4) model (vector autoregressive model of order 4) on a small selection of indicators to predict Gross Domestic Product. The predicted result of this model matches historical GDP data well and predicts consistent future growth.
Understanding the causal directions between electricity consumption (EC)/electricity production (EP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is helpful for policymakers in order to design, redesign, and implement effective energy policies. Although there are many studies on this issue, no consistent conclusion exists. In this paper, we provide an updated analysis of such relationship for Mexico. We employ...
In this paper it is shown that there are strong statistical evidences towards the presence of long memory components in three American macroeconomic time series (Output Gap, M1 Quantity of Money and Real Interest Rates). Moreover, in this paper is presented two Fractionally Integrated Vector Autoregression (FIVAR) models with the fractional difference coefficients estimated using two different procedures...
China's monetary authority applies monetary policy instruments of both money supply and interest rates. This paper estimates the impact of positive monetary policy shocks (money supply shock and interest rate shock) on house price, and assesses the effects of house price shock on the real economy, using SVAR model spanning the period of 2001Q1 to 2009Q4. In the money supply system, the impacts of...
Balance of payments is one of the main economic goals for an open economy. This paper uses the unit root test, co-integration test and VAR model to make an empirical analysis on the relationship between China's current account, capital account and GDP from 1982 to 2009. The results showed that the co-integration relationship between the current account and GDP, GDP does Granger cause current account...
Empirical Study on the relation between direct financing in the capital market and economical development in China was carried out with co-integration test and error correction model based on the annual data from 1981 to 2009. The results indicated that there is long/short run and stationary positive relation between direct financing and gross domestic product (GDP). It's found that direct financing...
The value of forecast lies in the prophet of future, and having an important impact on decision-making, Therefore, from the relevant of taxation and economic angle, using analytical methods integrating qualitative and quantitative analysis, based on macroeconomic indicators data of Heilongjiang Province since 1999, through the building of combined forecast model, It is going to forecast revenue organized...
Based on the Granger causality theory, this paper analyses the relationship of the building industry and the gross domestic product of Shaanxi province in China , using the C-D production function concerning technology advance, this paper also establishes the production function of Shaanxi building industry and offers some advices for the building industry growing style.
This paper applies the TYDL procedure to test the comparative advantage of the banking system vs. stock market in China. For the availability of the data, we confine our analysis between 1992Q1 to 2008Q4. Empirical result shows that there exists bi-directional Granger causality between the banking development and the economic growth in China; on the contrary, evidence implies that the stock market...
In this paper we introduce a new financial engineering approach to the investigation of information flow between two world stock markets. We apply the one-way effect causal measure approach presented by Yao and Hosoya (2000) and Yao (2007) to the analysis of systematic information transmission between stock markets of China, the US and Japan. In view of a high technical time series modeling, we see...
This paper, based on Shandong's quarterly time series data from the first quarter of 2002 to the second quarter of 2008 and applying methods of VAR model, impulse response function and variance decomposition, makes an empirical analysis of the contribution of real estate investment to Shandong's GDP. It is shown from the results of the empirical analysis that real estate investment can drive the growth...
The current financial crisis has a significant effect on the economic development of many countries. The paper analyses the transmission of global financial crisis to the economic growth of China. Applying dynamic correlation, the paper utilizes Granger Causality Test to investigate the relationship between financial system and economic growth, so as to find out whether the shocks from financial system...
This paper, based on the annual data from 1985 to 2007, builds up multi-variables' VAR model among domestic product gross (GDP), processing trade export and processing trade import, and then analyzes the relative variance contribution of each structural impact to GDP by impulse response function(IRF) and variance decomposition. Studies have shown that for a short period, the alteration of China's...
This paper, based on the annual data from 1985 to 2008, studies the contribution of international trade to economic growth in China. Firstly, it builds VAR model, and then analyzes the relative variance contribution of each structural impact to economic growth. Studies have shown that for a short period, export has a rather strong impact on China's economic growth while the influence coming from import...
Few scholars disagrees that electricity consumption is an important supporting factor for economy growth. However, the relationship between electricity consumption and economy growth has different manifestation in different country according to previous studies. In order to probe it, based on the time series of GDP and electricity consumption of China, the cointegration test is carried out in this...
Researchers have proposed a lot of detecting and testing methods about change points. While in the real case, it shows that the structure change of a time series was changed gradually, that is the change points has illustrated senses of fuzziness. This concept is important in fitting different models to different regimes of the data regarding economic interpretation of the data during that regime...
This paper, based on Shandong's quarterly time-series data from the first quarter of 2002 to the second quarter of 2008 and applying methods of co-integration test, error correction model (ECM), Granger causality test, impulse response function, variance decomposition etc., makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between real estate investment and Shandong's gross domestic product (GDP). It...
This paper uses co-integration analysis and Granger causal relation test to empirical study the relation between different laborer's stock of education level (primary, secondary, college, and graduate) and economic growth of China from 1981 to 2006. The results indicate that the dynamic equilibrium relation only exists between laborer's stock of secondary and college educated and economic growth in...
Through establishing a driving model that considering the entrepreneurial activity as a determinant and conducting time series analysis of the effect of the entrepreneurial activity on economic growth in China, this paper showed that there was an obviously positive correlation between regional entrepreneurial activities and economic development, and got the corresponding contribution rate of entrepreneurial...
Based on time series data of Suzhou from 1991 to 2008, this paper carries out empirical research on the spillover effect of foreign direct investment by using ADF test, Granger causality test and regression method. The result shows that foreign direct investment has spillover effect to GDP which is the Granger cause of GDP in Suzhou. Meanwhile, the inverse relationship does not hold. We also find...
Set the date range to filter the displayed results. You can set a starting date, ending date or both. You can enter the dates manually or choose them from the calendar.