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The article considers the stages of constructing the Bayesian network of trust for modeling complex natural processes with the unpredictability effect, as well as its structure, training and simulation results.
At The Boeing Company, stock levels for maintenance spares with substantial lead times must be established before fielding new aircraft designs. Initial calculations use mean time between demand estimates developed by the engineering department. After sufficient operating hours, stock levels are recalculated using statistical forecasts of maintenance history. A Bayesian forecasting method was developed...
This paper presents a financial forecasting method for innovative urban transport systems. The Monte Carlo simulation accounts for future uncertainties such as technology-related and market risks. The method is based on a total cost of ownership (TCO) approach and exemplary results are shown for the introduction of an innovative electric bus system in the city of Berlin. The input parameters are stochastically...
Long-term urban water demand is uncertainty. The delivery capacity of urban water distribution system is required to be flexible to satisfy multiple possible water demand in the future. In each prediction phase, water demand can be regarded as a stochastic variable. Based on the uncertain demand prediction information, further consideration is how to effectively utilize the predicted demand conclusion...
This paper studies the effect of uncertainty about stochastic diffusion model on dynamic portfolio choice of an investor who maximizes utility of terminal portfolio wealth. It applies stochastic control method to obtain the closed-form solution of optimal dynamic portfolio, and uses the Bayesian rule to estimate the model parameters to do an empirical study on two different samples of Shanghai exchange...
This paper demonstrates the use of discrete time portfolio optimization as a mechanism for introducing students to key problems in systems theory: control, system identification, model reduction, and verification. Too often students are not introduced to systems theory until very late in their programs, frequently after they have already decided on majors and generated momentum toward specific career...
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