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Distribution demand forecast is one of the core of the logistics system planning. In this paper, to forecast distribution demand, a Grey Markov Model is presented by means of combining Grey system theory with dispersed Markov Chains theory. The model overcomes the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting precision and widens the application scope of the grey forecasting. Results show that...
Reverse logistics is becoming more and more important because of the environmental and business factors. Good forecast for the amount of returned products of reverse logistics could bring more profits, customer satisfaction and a nice social picture for companies. To forecast the amount of returned products of reverse logistics, a new model based on wave function is proposed in this paper. Forecasting...
Passenger traffic forecast is significant for the study of the change of passenger transport capacity. Forecasting passenger traffic scientifically is very important for decision-making of transportation development strategies. This paper analyzes the factors of passenger traffic, and describes the principle of the grey-Markov chain. Then we divide these factors into two categories: supply factors...
China has already become world's largest coal producer and consumer. China's production in 2006 roughly equaled the combined production of the next four top producers (the United States, India, Australia and Russia). The dynamic GM(1,1) model of grey theory is used to forecast the coal production and consumption in China. In order to improve the forecast accuracy, the original GM(1, 1) models are...
This paper presents a higher-order multivariate Markov chain model combined with particle swarm optimization algorithm. Due to some deficiencies, such as only considering the maximum probability while ignoring the effect of the other probabilities, the traditional method of probability distribution has been replaced by the level characteristics value of fuzzy set theory; furthermore particle swarm...
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