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This study examined the forecast skill for the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) using the following state-of-the-art dynamical seasonal prediction systems: CanCM3, CanCM4, CFSv2, CM2.1, and GEOS-5. To assess the prediction skills and the associations with ENSO teleconnections of these systems, long-term seasonal hindcast data sets for 28 years (1983–2010) were investigated. Observational data indicated...
Instead of conventional East Asian winter monsoon indices (EAWMIs), we simply use two large-scale teleconnection patterns to represent long-term variations in the EAWM. First, the Urals blocking pattern index (UBI) is closely related to cold air advection from the high latitudes towards western Siberia, such that it shows an implicit linkage with the Siberian high intensity and the surface air temperature...
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