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It is the most important to effectively conduct enterprise credit evaluation in the issuing process of relationship lending. As Chinese market economy is not developed, the current enterprise credit evaluation model in developed countries can only serve as a reference instead of being completely imitated. The enterprise loan signaling game model proposed by domestic scholars gives consideration to...
In order to optimize the capacity of farmers' income persistently increasing, in this paper we analyze 8 factors affecting farmers' income increasing using PLS model based on the statistical data of Heilongjiang reclamation from 2000 to 2008. The study shows that wage incomes, agricultural subsidy and tax reducing still account for a great proportion of farmers' net incomes, but the level of agricultural...
A performance degradation prediction method for multi-unit system with insufficient measurement data is proposed by integrating data recovering model, hidden Markov model and support vector regression (SVR) model. The development of the model includes three main parts. Part one, a principal component analysis (PCA) model is build based on normal state. Part two, a hidden Markov model(HMM) is trained...
In this paper, we consider fuzzy variable weight combining forecasting which based on optimal combining forecasting and integrate those two modeling methods. Studies show that: optimal combining forecasting combines forecasting methods in a period of time and makes forecast through fixing the weight of forecasting methods that in the combination. But it does not consider that the weight will vary...
In this paper, an explainable prediction model is established to select the optimum features and parameters, then the selected optimum parameters are applied to predicting potential customer churning in one foreign telecom company, discovering that the model not only achieves a desirable prediction but is also explainable through selected features, and that a balanced relation between accuracy and...
Nowadays the research method of financial crisis early-warning models is linear, in which there are some faults, such as imperfect crisis theory and basic hypotheses, lacking critical variables and confusing the targets. These issues seriously affect the models predictable efficiency. In order to improve the financial crisis warning-models, we should enforce the research of basic financial crisis...
Dynamic forecast of crop productivity is critical for food security and decision-making of agriculture manager. Based on the Rice Cultivational Simulation-Optimization and Decision-making System (RCSODS) and aggregation methods on the model inputs, and combined normal year meteorological data and spatial interpolation technique of weather data, the dynamic forecast technique of regional rice productivity...
Objective Forecast and analysis of cerebral infraction incidence rate are the basis and key work of cerebral infraction prevention and control. At present, forecast of cerebral infraction incidence rate is mainly based on traditional research approach or single artificial neural network technology. Recent study results show that combined forecast model approach enjoys more precise forecast than monomial...
Refined Oil demand has great influence on the planning, operation and control of Refined Oil systems. A combined forecasting model based on the principle of gray theories was put forward to optimize Refined Oil demand forecasting models. The example shows that combined gray forecasting model can overcome the disadvantages of individual model, raise the precision.
Social networks have generated great expectations connected with their potential business value. The purpose of our research is to present that even a rudimentary application of data mining techniques can bring statistically significant improvement in marketing response accuracy throughout the virtual community. In our test the C&RT (classification and regression tree) approach was used to generate...
Modeling of real world financial time series such as stock returns are very difficult, because of their inherent characteristics. ARIMA and GARCH models are frequently used in such cases. It is proven of late that, the traditional models may not produce the best results. Lot of recent literature says the successes of hybrid models. The modeling and forecasting ability of ARFIMA-FIGARCH model is investigated...
This paper discusses the basic principle of the fractal theory and the basic thinking of how to use it to forecast the electricity price, then builds electricity price forecasting model based on improved fractal model and solve the model on this basis. Finally, this fractal model is used to forecast the short term electricity price.
This paper discusses the basic principle of the fractal theory and the basic thinking of how to use it to forecast the electricity price, then build electricity price forecasting model and make a analysis on the prediction error to put forward improvement. Before the application of fractal mode in the price forecast field, there is a need to do R/S analysis of the data series to derive its index Hurst;...
Based on the statistical data during the period from 2003 to 2008 released by Henan Statistical Bureau in China, this paper focused on forecasting the amount of the scientists and technicians of Henan province in China, using GM (1, 1) model and regression model. The result of this empirical study is that the grey prediction theory can fit the scientists and technicians amount development precisely...
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