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By using dynamic programming it is discussed that under high uncertainty and competition how to make strategy decision on an integrated system project. The decision analysis model is proposed. Investment decision critical values of the project are solved and the values of the integrated system project are deeply discussed under the technologies and cost uncertainty. The models, which are developed...
The determinants of investment decision making under uncertainty have been widespread discussed. Yet it remains few empirical examining focusing on distinct risky investments. By integrating risk aversion and information search aspects and by theorizing the moderator of gender, this study has three contributions: (1) clarifying the likely direct effects of both risk aversion and information searches...
A closed-loop supply chain with a third party who is in charge of collecting the used products was considered in this paper. By using the game theory and fuzzy theory, the optimal decisions of the manufacturer, the retailer and the third party were established under centralized and decentralized decision cases. The analytical solutions and a revenue-cost coordination contract were given.
The comprehensive evaluation of rural informatization is a grey problem. This paper presents a grey relational analysis method to evaluate the rural informatization level.A grey relational evaluation model of rural informatization is set up, then studies it by AHP and grey relational analysis to obtain the weights of the indicators and counts grey evaluation coefficients. This analysis method is flexible...
Consumers pre-purchase information search is an essential part of consumers' online buying and decision making process. There are nearly 60 factors that have been found to have an influence on consumer pre-purchase information search. In the literature, uncertainty has been established as the motive of consumer search. Uncertainty is a concept that provides a theoretical frame to link online search...
We analyze the impacts of adopting advanced weather forecasting systems at different levels of the decision-making hierarchy of the power grid. Using case studies, we show that state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models can provide high-precision forecasts and uncertainty information that can significantly enhance the performance of planning, scheduling, energy management, and feedback...
For the oil-depot undertakes specific tasks with the timeliness and economy requirements, the oil-depot geographical configuration optimum is discussed and the evaluation indicators system of the configuration area has been put forward. Meanwhile, the oil-depot geographical configuration model has been established by using uncertain linguistic information and multi-attribute group decision-making...
This paper presents an assessment model for research and development (R&D) projects considering uncertainty in their overall life cycle. Technology maturity and competitive advantages were considered and a Balanced Scorecard (BSC) model was developed to evaluate R&D projects. Based on the multilevel evaluation framework, an evidence reasoning approach has been developed to aggregate the numerical...
Predicting future populations and their structure is a central theme in demography. It is related to public health issues, political decision-making, or urban planning. Since these predictions are concerned with the evolution of a complex system, they exhibit a considerable uncertainty. Accounting for this inherent uncertainty is crucial for subsequent decision processes, as it reveals the range of...
To encourage further development of catastrophe (cat) bond, understanding the causes of cat bond premium puzzle is necessitated. Considering the property of entropy to measure uncertainty, this paper establishes an entropy model about risk assessment in catastrophe bond investors' decision making. Moreover, this article analyzes the model and compares relative influence through simulating actual behavior...
Multiple attribute decision-making theory under uncertainty is an important part of decision making theory, in this paper, a grey multiple attribute decision-making approach is proposed to study multi-criteria decision-making problems under uncertainty in which criteria values are interval gray numbers. Using grey related analysis as a means to reflect uncertainty in multiple attribute models through...
Distribution logistics system is required to respond to the uncertainty. Because the effective way to respond to the uncertainty is flexibility capacity, studying the flexibility capacity of distribution logistics system is important and practical. First of all, we analyze the uncertainty of distribution logistics system, then, we analyze comprehensively its elements from the view of system. Finally,...
Firms make very significant investments in new product development (NPD) projects, yet the economic return on these investments is often uncertain. The technical success of NPD projects is one source of uncertainty, and also how the market (customers) will respond to the new product. Often there is flexibility that firms can exploit to deal with uncertainty. Real options models can represent this...
An evaluation model is suggested to automobile advisement effect assessment considering the multiple stages uncertainty preferences. Firstly, a weight model is put forward to describe the uncertainty preference based on a consistency definition. Secondly, a decision-maker weight model is suggested according to the consistency level of the decision maker and the deviation value between individuals...
Voting is commonly used to decision making in many large projects. Compared to ??agree?? and ??disagree?? which are two types of certainty information, ??abstention?? belongs to the uncertainty factor. However, the high proportion of abstentions will largely affect the normal decision-making. Based on the theory of set pair analysis (SPA) and relevant literature, proportional analysis method (PAM)...
The time-cost trade-off problem is a type of the project scheduling problem which studies how to modify project activities so as to achieve the trade-off between the project cost and the completion time. In real projects, the trade-off between project cost and project completion time, and the uncertainty of the environment are both considerable aspects for decision-makers. In this paper, an expected...
The research and development (R&D) investment timing decision-making problem is studied based on option game theory in this paper. The existence and inequality of two businesses operating costs are assumed, and jump diffusion is used to describe sudden events. The duopoly option game model is established to obtain the R&D investment value function and the critical value to invest. The game...
In the paper a preliminary system construction and solution of the risk management principle is given. The solution is based on the system parameters representation with the type 2 fuzzy sets, and decision making model based on the modified, weighted Mamdani type decision making system. The system output is represented by a colored surface in 3D form. The decision making system is based on distance...
Concession period is one of the most important issues in a build-operate-transfer (BOT) scheme and has become the focus in fields of both academy and practice. Current decision methods of concession period commonly face to the difficulties in estimating the wider-risk profiles and long-term uncertainties for traffic projects. This paper proposes a simulation-based methodology which aims to determine...
Summary form only given. There is an extensive literature on decision-making under uncertainty. Unfortunately, up to day there are no valid decision principles. The widely used principle of maximization of expected utility has serious shortcomings. The first approach in classical theory of choice was formulated axiomatically in the expected utility theory of von Neumann and Morgenstern and is the...
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