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This study examines possible impacts of crude oil price (OP) on consumer price index (CPI) among three oil exchange markets and four Asian countries with different economic development levels over the period January 1999 to June 2008. A time-series vector autoregression (VAR) model is applied in empirical estimation. The estimated results show that oil prices changes (COPs) have significant effects...
We propose a novel calibration methodology based on the maximum likelihood estimator to recover the parameters of a structural model of credit risk which accounts for potential reporting bias. Such bias is introduced by the managers and it is unobserved by outsider investors which can only estimate it. The calibration is performed using a combination of balance sheet, financial indicators and market...
As the amounts of installed wind power increases in the power system, the required real-time balancing quantities increases because of the unpredictability of wind power production. Real-time balancing power is usually provided through various market solutions and thus, the prices on such markets will be affected by the increase in wind power production. Consequently, there exist a need for planning...
With the organizational reform of electric power industry in our country day by day, and the market of generation side gradually maturing, the construction of ancillary services market was brought into schedule. As one of the most important ancillary services, AGC possesses certain competitiveness so far as its own characteristics and supply trend of the electrical network, and marketization is relatively...
In electricity market, the power transactions needs to be executed under strict physical and other constraints, such as transmission congestion which may lead to the decrease of market efficiency. In the paper, under considering transmission congestion, it establishes the model that reflects market transaction, including generator output and sale price. Then it gives index system which is used to...
In current U.S. deregulated wholesale electricity markets, an auction mechanism that minimizes the total bid cost is used to select bids and their output levels. Energy market clearing prices (MCPs) are derived from the shadow prices associated with the system demand constraints in an economic dispatch process with fixed unit commitment status. Therefore they do not reflect no-load and start-up costs,...
Capital flows are increasingly intertwined globally and, consequently, have brought advantages to global investment strategies. Having a global view of portfolio allocation brings about the diversification of risks in investments. In this paper, a framework to select and optimize asset portfolios in relevant financial markets for short term investment is proposed. In this approach, beta portfolio...
The short-term/long-term model proposed by Schwartz and Smith in 2000 is widely used in modeling commodity prices. A key and nontrivial problem in this modeling technique is how to estimate the model parameters. This paper considers the parameter estimation problem based on the maximum likelihood criterion and proposes a method to simplify the task. Two components are contained in the proposed method:...
Itpsilas a key problem for each country to balance and choose among money supply, inflation and economic growth. A DAG model can place restrictions on over recognitions of the innotion terms in a structural VAR model constituted by macroeconomic variables and can show the corresponding period and dynamic causality of economic variables at the same time. Using DAG model this paper finds that monetary...
Choosing a cotton variety involves making comparisons over many trials and across an increasingly large number of available varieties. To aid in this process, a computerized tool has been developed at the Texas Tech University. This tool, called COTWIZ, based on the cotton variety selection model, allows multiple comparisons of varieties across a number of trial locations. COTWIZ based on the cotton...
With the financial crisis sweeping across the world, house prices of big cities in China such as Peking, Shenzhen and Shanghai are declining and the ones of small cities are considered to be downtrend in the future on the influence of housing price ripple effect from big cities. A choice must be made for adopting measures to harness the crisis that is whether to concentrate limited force on big cities...
In the new era of modernity, the competitive environment has spread widely into all sectors including the electricity market. The evolution of electricity market model began since 1980s. A number of electricity market models have been introduced and each model is designed appropriately with its local condition. The selection of the model used depends on the justification determined by power utilities...
Conjectural variations based bidding strategies have been proved to be a more appropriate model to analyze bidding profile of players in an electricity market than other game theoretic models. The equilibrium quantities and market clearing prices result from Nash-Cournot equilibrium are far from real markets data. However CV has been criticized for having no definite meaning in static form. In this...
In an open railway access market price negotiation, it is feasible to achieve higher cost recovery by applying the principles of price discrimination. The price negotiation can be modeled as an optimization problem of revenue intake. In this paper, we present the pricing negotiation based on reinforcement learning model. A negotiated-price setting technique based on agent learning is introduced, and...
In this paper, some foundations of a decision support model for a full-service e-commerce provider, providing a SAAS (software as a service) business model, are presented. The decision model is targeted to explicitly address interoperability issues, to provide a simple but powerful communication aid for the negotiations between service provider and customer, and to aim in automatically composing reliable...
This paper presents rough sets generating prediction rules scheme for stock price movement. The scheme was able to extract knowledge in the form of rules from daily stock movements. These rules then could be used to guide investors whether to buy, sell or hold a stock. To increase the efficiency of the prediction process, rough sets with Boolean reasoning discretization algorithm is used to discretize...
Reverse pricing as a special form of dynamic pricing has become a growing interest in e-commerce. It gives buyers an active role: The price of a transaction is not given by the supplier, but is mainly determined by the buyer's bid. This paper extends the coverage of current reverse pricing models to sourcing. The reason is that sourcing strategies, such as global, local, and multiple sourcing, greatly...
While grid market schedulers have recently received a lot of attention and have been accepted not only in economic but also in purely computer science areas as well, technical grid schedulers are being modified to support advance reservation of resources, too. This prompts questions on how to model grid markets and how to handle grid resource reservation in a reasonable economic fashion. This paper...
Large scale systems such as the grid need scalable and efficient resource allocation mechanisms to fulfil the requirements of its participants and applications while the whole system is regulated to work efficiently. Economics inspired models have shown ability to handle efficiently the allocation of resources and services, scaling up well as they are decentralized. Our model considers the arbitration...
Based on the current cost and pricing environment and Minex software model applied optimization, the Baganuur Southern pit limited by the 1200m RL level is economically viable. But this contour can not represent the final pit and we recognize it as an alternative until the domestic coal price is freed. We assume that the inputs of the pit optimization will be unstable in the near future and it needs...
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