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In order to forecast the passenger flow demand between central city and Satellite city exactly, a boundary model based on the time and cost is constructed to identify the attractive area of the transportation corridor by analyzing the traffic characteristic of corridor; then, thinking of the differences between urban trip and country trip, a double-deck method is put forward to divide traffic zones...
Firstly, an air passenger capacity investigation at the capital international airport is made, and a composite forecasting model based on total air passenger capacity is established, in which multiple regression and ARIMA model are parallel connection and their forecast results are series connection with BP neural network. Secondly, according to the average growth rate of air passenger capacity, all...
In this paper, for the requirements of freight volume forecast on the Post-evaluation work of Inland Navigation and Hydropower Project, the two prediction methods-exponential smoothing method and the gray method were compared in this article, and established prediction model of each method. By freight volume forecast of DaYuanDu Navigation and Hydropower Project hinterland, the results shows that...
Freight traffic flow caused by container logistics park has played an increasingly important role in urban traffic, aiming to the fact that there isn't any historical data for freight traffic flow forecasting to reference at the planning step of the new container logistics park, the paper analyses the key factors influencing the port container freight traffic flow, establishes grey relevance neural...
To accurately forecast port throughput is crucial to the success of any port operation policy. This paper attempts to create an optimal ensemble predictive model of port throughput by using regression models, grey model and artificial neural network. Years of historical data (Jan. 2001 to Dec. 2009) from major ports in China mainland are collected and the data of Dalian Port is used to establish and...
This paper uses the K-NN based nonparametric regression to forecast the short term traffic flow, applies the prediction interval calculated by K to forecast during unconventional road condition, and improves the forecasting results. Finally, nonparametric regression's advantages of high accuracy and strong transplant ability are showed while being compared with neural network.
Expressway transportation is playing a more important roll in economic construction and social life. The expressway network status, including section flow and average speed, is important to the expressway management for analysis and decision making. Traditional ways of monitoring the road is using detectors which cost much to install and maintain. We propose speed constraint deducing model and similarity...
Currently, the effects of accidental factors are not considered while the bad and missing data are in the data processing of forecasting traffic flow. In the paper the forecasting model of short-term traffic flow based on wavelet and ARMA is improved by processing data with exponential smoothing (ES). And compared with the traditional model, the new model improves the prediction precision and provides...
Passenger traffic forecast is significant for the study of the change of passenger transport capacity. Forecasting passenger traffic scientifically is very important for decision-making of transportation development strategies. This paper analyzes the factors of passenger traffic, and describes the principle of the grey-Markov chain. Then we divide these factors into two categories: supply factors...
Passenger Transport Volume forecasting is a hot topic in the field of transportation and is meaningful to improve the traffic situation, can also help common people on installment plan. Different linear regression models, including one variable linear regression and multivariate linear regression, and nonlinear regression models, including power function and exponential function, were introduced and...
The forecast of the demand for the highway transportation is extremely important theoretically and practically since the road is the national infrastructure. The original GM(1,1) models have been analyzed, and their shortcomings in the road forecast have been pointed out. Because sometimes the precision of grey model cannot meet the requirement of actual forecasting, a novel improved GM(1,1) model...
The port plays an irreplaceable role both in the development of national economy and regional economy at present. Port throughput is an important basis for the construction of port. Grey forecast theory could reveal features of the development and changes in the throughput of the port. So it is an effective tool in research the port throughput .This article conducts the research to the throughput...
On the condition of limited resources, businesses should put the resources on those profitable customers. So it is necessary to carry out the customer segmentation, especially for the air cargo industry being in the fierce competition. Drawing on the theory of customer value, and combining it with the management features of the air cargo customers to construct the forecasting model of customer value,...
Traffic demand forecasting is the indispensable process of capacity and resource optimal allocation of comprehensive transport corridor. As such, it is derivate by social and economy activities. The steps of traffic demand forecast of comprehensive transport corridor in this paper is as follows; Step1: Using principal component analysis as a pretreatment to filter out the critical factors that affect...
This paper treatise of the predicting methods & superior original of districts traffic. In the old years, the used methods of forecasting is intrinsic-forecast, trace-algorithm, economy-allocate through the instance, consolidate they are same important between the forecasting of traffic and application.
This paper assesses the function of travel agents instructing on the choice for scheduled services from regional comprehensive transportation. A investigation survey, excepting track transportation there are more than 400 bus lines in some mega-cities. Reasons for developing the travel agent instruction system include that the routes from one place to another is many, and the times of transforming...
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