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The overwhelming majority of the literature on stochastic planning involves problems that exhibit exogenous uncertainty. In such problems the optimal decisions and the process of uncertainty resolution are independent, with the latter taking place solely with the passage of time. In this paper a novel stochastic planning formulation is proposed that can capture endogenous sources of uncertainty, whose...
As penetration of variable renewable generation increases, many conventional thermal power plants need to operate long hours at their minimum stable levels (MSL) due to operational constraints. In these conditions, they may be generating at times when the price of the system is below their marginal costs, incurring in economic losses and hurting their profitability. This paper discusses how operational...
In this paper, we formulate a long-term planning model of transmission line expansion based on balancing investment cost and reducing consumer cost. We achieve this by formulating a hierarchical framework that is sensitive to different agents operating on different timelines, the relationships of which may be competitive, cooperative or somewhere in between. The advantage of this framework is that...
Electricity infrastructure touches us all - the key challenge, pertinent to this panel session, is to enable secure and very high-confidence sensing, communication and control of a heterogeneous, widely dispersed, yet globally interconnected system, which is a serious technological problem in any case. It is even more complex and difficult to control it for optimal efficiency and maximum benefit to...
The ability of the liberalised energy markets to trigger investment in the generation capacity required to maintain an acceptable level of security of supply risk has been - and will continue to be - a topic of much debate. Modelling the dynamics of investment in generation capacity can inform this debate. More precisely, if investment is viewed as a negative feedback control mechanism with energy...
This paper employed the theory of real option to analyze investment decision-making for power generator in a completely competitive power market, a investment threshold model considered power bidding of power generator and their quadratic production cost function was presented. The results of the model were simulated and analyzed with the Matlab software, and the results indicated that the main conclusions...
Liberalization and privatization in the electricity industry have led to increased competition. At the same time, generation companies are now exposed more than ever to risk and uncertainties which they cannot pass through to their customers in the form price increases as in a regulated environment. The central challenge for electricity generators is to maximize profits under uncertainty. But this...
Traditionally, the objective in undertaking a generation expansion planning (GEP) process has been to minimize the expected sum of yearly discounted costs (incorporate i.e., construction costs, operating costs, salvage value, etc.). Now, the objective is to apply GEP to today's competitive electricity markets in order to maximize the profits of individual GENCOs (i.e., the revenues based on market...
An improved multi-group evolutionary programming is proposed and applied to power plant planning. The minimum total cost capacity expansion scheme is established to meet the nonlinear constraints of planning and operating. In this paper the planning objective costs take into account unnerved energy costs besides investment, operation and environment pollution costs. A novel bi-group evolutionary programming...
The objective of this work is to discuss the modeling of auctions of long-term electricity supply contracts for new capacity in Brazil. The modeling of risks such as price-quantity (hydrological) risk, project completion risk, environmental constraints, climate change and regulatory risks are discussed. An analytical model will be developed to price these risks and case studies will be presented for...
In this paper we discuss the generator investment problem for a newly proposed energy-only market structure comprising both spot and forward sub-markets as an alternative long-term resource adequacy solution. The investment problem is modeled as stochastic dynamic programming problem for a profit maximizing generator over a long time horizon. The long-term growth and short-term deviation of demand...
With increasing investment in natural gas powered generation technologies, limitations in gas delivery capabilities are becoming increasingly relevant to operational planning for electric power systems. Thus it is essential to model and analyze the impact of the interdependency between natural gas and electricity infrastructures. This paper tries to convey the idea that, through an integrated modeling...
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