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The procedure of the aggregation of experts' individual probability estimates for solving probability inference problems in probability trees are proposed. The suggested methodology allows to consider specific forms of uncertainty arising from the process of interaction between the expert judgments. The structure of such interactions may be different in nature — they can be consistent, compatible,...
Traditionally, researchers and practitioners have been focused on deterministic costing models without acknowledge and handle conveniently cost uncertainty. This paper presents and discusses a methodology for measuring the risk within costing systems: Costing at Risk (CaR) which, considering a predefined confidence level, takes into account the worst expected outcome in terms of cost in a certain...
This paper presents a multi-objective Ant Colony Optimization (MOACO) algorithm based on a learning mechanism (named MOACO-L) for the optimization of project scenario selection under uncertainty in a system engineering (SE) process. The objectives to minimize are the total cost of the project, its total duration and the global risk. Risk is considered as an uncertainty about task costs and task durations...
This work investigates the Practice Standard for Project Risk Management (PSPRM) in light of the fundamental organizational risk research. As a result of this investigation, the work finds that the PSPRM is lacking some key concepts from the extant organizational risk literature and that other fundamental risk concepts are not applied in a manner consistent with the literature. Building on these findings,...
Security decision-making is a critical task in tackling security threats affecting a system or process. It often involves selecting a suitable resolution action to tackle an identified security risk. To support this selection process, decision-makers should be able to evaluate and compare available decision options. This article introduces a modelling language that can be used to represent the effects...
This paper discusses the approaches required for risk management of ‘traditional’ (single) Systems and System of Systems (SoS) and identifies key differences between them. When engineering systems, the Risk Management methods applied tend to use qualitative techniques, which provide subjective probabilities and it is argued that, due to the inherent complexity of SoS, more quantitative methods must...
Challenges of technical risk assessment is difficult to address, while its success can benefit software organizations appreciably. Classical definition of risk as a "combination of probability and impact of adverse event" appears not working with technical risk assessment. The main reason of this is the nature of adverse event's outcome which is rather continuous than discrete. The objective...
This paper aims to present a study on knowledge management. We develop decision-support mechanisms hybridizing statistical and cognitive experience feedback to perform risk assessments on critical areas of a system. We propose an approach for combining expert opinion and statistics by using belief functions and by processing the combined knowledge in a directed evidential network to provide a risk...
Critical refers to infrastructure that provides an essential support for economic and social well-being, for public safety and for the functioning of key government responsibilities. According to Resolution of the National Security Strategy of the Republic of Slovenia various sources of threat are directed towards critical infrastructure. An operational infrastructure ensures the implementation of...
Retail electricity markets are critical in assuring that final customers receive the full benefits of competition in wholesale electricity markets. Retailers act as a service interface between the energy market and customers. In this paper, a comprehensive methodology to solve the problem that retailers face in an electricity energy market, including risk management, is proposed. The methodology consist...
In this paper we aim to gain insight into the relationship between user participation modes and project risk factors, and then we construct a model that can be used to determine how user participation can be successfully applied in ISD projects with a given set of risk factors. We perform an in-depth literature review, which aims to clarify the concept of user participation as part of risk management...
With the increasingly security problems in networks and systems, the evolution of development models that underlie current tools and techniques is all that is required to produce a model of self-defense where all the components are self-protected. The great extension of current models recommends a reasonable transition fundamentally based on the family of standards ISO/IEC 31000, where the selection...
In recent years, with the rapid growth of China's resources investment program abroad, Chinese companies have a higher percentage of failure of investment. So, this paper analyzes the main risks of the investment program for international resources, and the interactions between risks with the methods of survey and theory research. Subsequently, the article exploits the identification process of the...
The paper firstly introduces the basic ideas of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy sets. Since project risk assessment is too complex to be understood quantitatively only, conventional AHP did not truly reflect human cognitive especially those “fuzzy” properties. Therefore “fuzzy Analytic Hierarchical Process (fuzzy AHP)” methodology is designed for the project risk assessment. Based on...
Evaluating and selecting alternatives from available alternatives with respect to multiple, often conflicting criteria in a group decision making setting is complex and challenging due to the risk associated with the uncertainty and imprecision existent in the human decision making process. To effectively solve this problem, this paper proposes a risk-oriented group decision making approach for adequately...
Comparing risks of rare, high consequence events poses serious challenges to social decision making as well as deep methodological and epistemological problems. It is necessary to assess the merits of countermeasures that are only useful in extremely unlikely circumstances. The value of a conventional conditional probability P(A|B)=P(A∩B)/P(B) becomes too uncertain to be useful when P(B) is not well...
Cost-benefit analysis has long been used in decision making about public health and security. Frequently, risk and uncertainty are involved, and benefit and cost are not evenly shared by all stakeholders in the activities where public welfare is concerned. The result of cost-benefit analysis may be controversial because it does not consider the conflict of interest among the stakeholders. In this...
This paper develops a risk model that captures the inherent uncertainties concerning the value and cost of a customized product. Analysis based on the model reveals that risks may handicap potential transactions and consequently prevent customers and manufactures from tapping into the value of customization. Prototyping, as commonly used in product customization, is then interpreted as a means of...
Scheduling of jobs is momentous to augment production rate, reduce production expenses, trim down jobs completion times etc. However, changes in the sequence of jobs on machines as well as the uncertainties in actual processing times of jobs produces variations in the performance of flow-shop schedule. In these circumstances, the risk of attaining schedules' performance level inferior than a certain...
In project selection, analysis and implementation of the entire process, internal and external interference factors, such as project risks, can not be predicted. If unchecked, the impact of risk will expand, and even cause the interruption of the whole project. With more large scales and more fast speeds of construction projections, much more risks are fronted by construction companies. It is necessary...
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