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Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA) described in the IEC 61511 standard is one of the most popular methods that enables the adequacy of the layers of protection for an industrial process to be assessed. LOPA has found much broader application as a relatively simple risk assessment methodology. However, an important issue faced by risk analysts is how to deal with uncertainties that arise in the elements...
Even though an underground electricity distribution system is safer than an overhead system, several accidents have occurred in them. Assessing the risk of hundreds or even thousands of underground vaults is a hard task. Furthermore, given the large variability in external and internal environments and, hence, there being a wide range of possible consequences when an accident occurs, an approach to...
In the areas of safety risk assessment, how to consider uncertainty properly becomes a challenge. To resolve this problem, a new system state description method was presented firstly in the DET, that is system state sequence which can record the evolvement process of accident, and then the arithmetic of state sequence probability was designed. The probability of accident can be calculated easily in...
The construction industry is plagued by risk and often has suffered poor performance as a result. The construction of Bohai cross sea channel is a comprehensive transport construction with great significance. In order to evaluate the risk of Bohai Strait Cross-sea Channel, the method of fuzzy risk analysis was applied. Based on the epistemic or knowledge-based uncertainty, the paper adopts the method...
The BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill disaster has reminded us, once again, the potential for systemic failures in complex engineered systems. But such systemic failures are not limited to the chemical and petrochemical industries alone. The 2003 Northeast electrical power blackout was a systemic failure. Financial disasters such as Enron, WorldCom, subprime derivatives market, and so on, also belong...
Aviation accidents caused by maintenance errors have increased year after year. It is necessary to carry out the safety risk management during the aviation maintenance process. There are a lot of uncertainty factors in the process of safety risk management. The research in this paper focuses on formulating a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (Fuzzy AHP) to solve it. The priority weights of factors...
Most of the critical aspects for secure and dependable systems, such as safety, integrity, availability, are related to uncertainty. Literature proposes many approaches to deal with uncertainty, mainly in the area of risk management and safety and reliability engineering. However, what is still missing is a clear understanding of the nature of uncertainty that very often has produced mistreatments...
Managing uncertainties in industrial systems is a daily challenge to ensure improved design, robust operation, accountable performance and responsive risk control. This paper aims to illustrate the different depth analyses that the uncertainty software LEONAR, devoted to a specific application, can propose. The physical model of LEONAR describes some of the phenomena, related to the molten core behavior,...
This paper is about case-based system safety risk assessment. Firstly, a knowledge expression model of system safety occurrence is presented. Furthermore, the knowledge granulation caused cognitive uncertainty about system safety status is described, thus elicit the concept of safety risk, as well as a case-based system safety risk model (CBSSRM), in order to assess the system safety risk by safety...
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