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The 2011 reform of the Stability and Growth Pact (1996) strengthened the European Commission's monitoring of EU member states' public finance. Failure to comply with the 3% limit on public deficit triggers an audit. In this paper, we present a machine learning based forecasting model for compliance with the 3% limit. We use data from 2006 to 2018 (a turbulent period including the Global Financial...
The growing importance of services trade in the global economy contrasts with the scarcity of timely data on this part of international trade. This paper develops models to nowcast aggregate services imports and exports, as measured by monthly services trade data, for the G7 countries. The methodology relies on machine‐learning techniques and dynamic factor models and combines traditional high‐frequency...
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