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This responds to an “evaluation” of the classical model for structured expert judgment by Bolger and Rowe in this issue. This response references extensive expert judgment performance data in the public domain which played no role in their evaluation.
Good policy making should be based on available scientific knowledge. Sometimes this knowledge is well established through research, but often scientists must simply express their judgment, and this is particularly so in risk scenarios that are characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Usually in such cases, the opinions of several experts will be sought in order to pool knowledge and reduce error,...
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