Aim
Factors that make species resilient to climate change can be difficult to study with empirical data because conditions cannot be experimentally controlled. We used trait‐based evolutionary ecological agent‐based modelling to understand how dispersal, selection, extirpation, and other factors contribute to resilience under three climate change scenarios to test the extent to which high dispersal rate contributes to persistence of species and the extent to which they occupy large geographic ranges on an evolutionary time‐scale involving speciation, dispersal, gene flow, and extinction.
Location
Hesperia (an imaginary continent with controlled environmental heterogeneity).
Major taxa studied
Modelled mammalian herbivore clade with 16 terminal species, each of which is a metapopulation with a variable number of local populations.
Methods
We used NetLogo to model trait‐based biotic responses to climate change in an environmentally heterogeneous continent in an evolving clade, the species of which are each represented by local populations that disperse and interbreed; they also are subject to selection, genetic drift, and local extirpation. We simulated mammalian herbivores, whose success depends on tooth crown height, vegetation type, precipitation and grit.
Results
We found that high dispersal probability usually allowed species to successfully track their ancestral habitat as the continent's geography was altered by climate change. However, tracking was insufficient to allow species’ traits to adapt to novel habitats that arose through the climate change process. High dispersal rates combined with moderate plasticity (lower extirpation risk) facilitated occupation of novel habitats, as did weak selective regimes.
Main conclusions
The interaction between dispersal, probability of local extirpation, and selection intensity were jointly required to understand the likelihood of species survival and how widespread they would be. Diversity and geographic occupancy were maximized when parameters facilitated evolutionary adaptation to novel habitats. High rates of dispersal were sufficient for habitat tracking but insufficient by themselves to allow occupation of newly emerged environments.