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Projecting the fates of populations under climate change is one of global change biology's foremost challenges. Here, we seek to identify the contributions that temperature‐mediated local adaptation and plasticity make to spatial variation in nesting phenology, a phenotypic trait showing strong responses to warming. We apply a mixed modeling framework to a Britain‐wide spatiotemporal dataset comprising...
One consequence of rising spring temperatures is that the optimum timing of key life‐history events may advance. Where this is the case, a population's fate may depend on the degree to which it is able to track a change in the optimum timing either via plasticity or via adaptation. Estimating the effect that temperature change will have on optimum timing using standard approaches is logistically challenging,...
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