Axial loading fatigue tests of carburized 12Cr steel alloy in long‐life regime were performed under stress ratios of −1 and 0. Fatigue fracture can be divided into surface failure, interior failure without fine granular area (FGA), and interior failure with FGA. By considering the effects of the tensile limit, the evaluation of maximum crack sizes (inclusion sizes and FGA sizes), and residual stress distribution, the fatigue strength prediction model of carburized 12Cr steel alloy for inclusion‐FGA‐fisheye induced failure in low stress level region can be established. By comparing the predicted results evaluated by generalized extreme values (GEV) with generalized Pareto (GP), the GP distribution is more suitable to predict the fatigue limit of the carburized 12Cr steel alloy. Furthermore, by using the relationship between inclusion sizes and FGA sizes, the fatigue limit prediction model for the design of components can be established, and the result is extremely accurate for the carburized 12Cr steel alloy.